The supercycle that might be happening now is often talked about in terms of price — that is, the price will continue rising, with bitcoin outperforming as the numerator (versus the dollar inflating as the denominator). However, the supercycle might better be characterized as a "supercycle of conviction," meaning no matter what happens to the price in the short run, in the long run bitcoin and crypto as a whole will persist and grow. Don't buy assets on "borrowed conviction." You need to do your own research, understand what you're investing in, to build your own conviction. You will not succeed in investing by borrowing the conviction of others — i.e., asking someone else what asset they think you should buy. - [[202101191207 Conviction in investing]] "Control your environment." The more aspects of your environment that you control, the more likely you'll achieve the outcomes that you want. Filter out the noise. Do more things that give you energy. Cut the things that drain your energy. - This can be added to [[202103202252 Outperformance through competitive advantages|Sahil Bloom's list of competitive advantages]]. At the end of the bull run, sell 50% into stablecoins to get yield on DeFi, and sell your low caps for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Hold the highest conviction things at the top. Buy long shot things at the bottom. ^71c1c6 - Corollary: Do not buy long shots at the top. In terms of the "top," you don't have to aim to sell the market top. If you hit your own personal top, you should sell into whatever you think you should sell into, which might be stablecoins, real estate, etc. But first things first, you have to be clear about what your top is. ^91fce1 - [[202103311307 My personal tops]] "The risk is nothing in your life changes." Put both feet on the gas. Do not treat what you want to do as a side hustle. "What makes me feel calm is fucking sending it, going YOLO on my life." #quote Question to ponder: "What are people going to spend money on even if it gets more expensive (i.e., in an inflationary environment)?" - Food, energy, real estate - XLP, XLE [[investing]] [[trading]] [[markets]] #podcast