# Prediction
## Notes
Prediction is the ability to have relatively accurate assessments on what will happen, what would be the result of an action. We as humans are worse at predictions than we believe. We are prone for biases, from (Jump:: [[over confidence]]), to (Jump:: [[Conformation Bias]]) and (Jump:: [[Lindy Effect]]) that makes us not only equipped with all the wrong information, we also process it in a misguided way.
The problem with predictions is that we can't predict the unexpected. Even (Related:: [[Machine Learning]]) assumes that the future would be similar to the past. Without this assumption, predictions are useless. However, considering that (Related:: [[life is change]]), can we really predict anything? Even something that sounds so "basic" such as weather is almost impossible to predict more than a few days ahead. We can't account for (Aka:: [[Randomness]]), which is a built-in component in human life. Trying to predict the future based on the past is a type of (Reminds:: [[Path Dependence]]), we think too narrowly because we believe our past dictates the range of potential options, without thinking about new things that might arise.
When we predict, often two things will happen. First, we would make a lot of (Aka:: [[planning fallacy|mistakes]]), we would plan our future based on misguided predictions, which would lead to larger errors the more ambitious we were. Secondly, despite the fact that the future isn't here yet, by predicting it we become ;(Related:: [[Attachment|attached]]) to our predictions, as if it's guaranteed, as if it's already ours. We set our (Related:: [[Expectations]]) accordingly, which would only result in pain the larger the gap was between our expectations and reality.
## Visual
![[Prediction.webp]]
## Connections
```dataviewjs
const queryPath = "Extras/Queries/connections_query.js"
const queryContent = await dv.io.load(queryPath)
dv.executeJs(queryContent);
```
## Overview
🔼Topic:: [[Statistics (MOC)]]
↩️Origin::
🔗Link::
%%
# Excalidraw Data
## Text Elements
Prediction ^UFR8LMwn
Past ^GMhORz6m
Future ^6UtCDHKA
We assume that the past is indicative
of the future, so we could predict it ^3H91yFj2
## Drawing
```json
{
"type": "excalidraw",
"version": 2,
"source": "https://github.com/zsviczian/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/releases/tag/2.6.2",
"elements": [
{
"id": "UFR8LMwn",
"type": "text",
"x": -8.982911987304647,
"y": -170.31771087646484,
"width": 122.54953002929688,
"height": 30.999999999999993,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a0",
"roundness": null,
"seed": 111974184,
"version": 43,
"versionNonce": 1791536216,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556595061,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"text": "Prediction",
"rawText": "Prediction",
"fontSize": 24.799999999999994,
"fontFamily": 5,
"textAlign": "left",
"verticalAlign": "top",
"containerId": null,
"originalText": "Prediction",
"autoResize": true,
"lineHeight": 1.25
},
{
"id": "suVUwwkx2QLJ9BH6zSeX5",
"type": "line",
"x": -71.33332824707031,
"y": -92.98436737060547,
"width": 1.33331298828125,
"height": 240.66665649414062,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a1",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 279015720,
"version": 63,
"versionNonce": 1855324248,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556473361,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"points": [
[
0,
0
],
[
-1.33331298828125,
240.66665649414062
]
],
"lastCommittedPoint": null,
"startBinding": null,
"endBinding": null,
"startArrowhead": null,
"endArrowhead": null
},
{
"id": "__l2oD3dvXUbtK5Kidlqe",
"type": "line",
"x": -74.00001525878906,
"y": 149.01566314697266,
"width": 240.66668701171875,
"height": 2.6666259765625,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a2",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 1772369240,
"version": 46,
"versionNonce": 558266456,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556476191,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"points": [
[
0,
0
],
[
240.66668701171875,
2.6666259765625
]
],
"lastCommittedPoint": null,
"startBinding": null,
"endBinding": null,
"startArrowhead": null,
"endArrowhead": null
},
{
"id": "L5vpZg1K01mMpMEvLqPQY",
"type": "ellipse",
"x": -49.33332824707031,
"y": 41.01563262939453,
"width": 12.666656494140625,
"height": 12.666656494140625,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a4",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 270176856,
"version": 8,
"versionNonce": 603104856,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556485850,
"link": null,
"locked": false
},
{
"id": "1__BssbGyb0cD5NPOXVcI",
"type": "ellipse",
"x": -7.000030517578125,
"y": 52.68230438232422,
"width": 12.666656494140625,
"height": 12.666656494140625,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a5",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 292021800,
"version": 50,
"versionNonce": 1493101912,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556490131,
"link": null,
"locked": false
},
{
"id": "2enhmyiGHXEVAhS6x9ftO",
"type": "ellipse",
"x": -4.333343505859375,
"y": 1.3489608764648438,
"width": 12.666656494140625,
"height": 12.666656494140625,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a6",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 469071704,
"version": 80,
"versionNonce": 443285032,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556491463,
"link": null,
"locked": false
},
{
"id": "-vJsEiEnmpwLp4I-dHdkF",
"type": "ellipse",
"x": 35.666656494140625,
"y": 80.68230438232422,
"width": 12.666656494140625,
"height": 12.666656494140625,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a7",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 1532007464,
"version": 116,
"versionNonce": 620629080,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556493012,
"link": null,
"locked": false
},
{
"id": "iMHpWjdMUw1_khKyTv9_T",
"type": "ellipse",
"x": 56.333343505859375,
"y": 18.015647888183594,
"width": 12.666656494140625,
"height": 12.666656494140625,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a8",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 469292632,
"version": 153,
"versionNonce": 1440132136,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556494994,
"link": null,
"locked": false
},
{
"id": "2Ru4NuipTZRHzjfeQfeoq",
"type": "ellipse",
"x": 61.000030517578125,
"y": -20.651039123535156,
"width": 12.666656494140625,
"height": 12.666656494140625,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "a9",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 396656472,
"version": 185,
"versionNonce": 1569736488,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556497774,
"link": null,
"locked": false
},
{
"id": "m2zl-1-2zoaoev6Mc73QB",
"type": "line",
"x": -70.00001525878906,
"y": 92.3489761352539,
"width": 156,
"height": 104,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 2,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "aB",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 1052765272,
"version": 101,
"versionNonce": 258221400,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556515681,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"points": [
[
0,
0
],
[
27.3333740234375,
-35.333343505859375
],
[
75.3333740234375,
-44.66668701171875
],
[
91.3333740234375,
-84
],
[
134,
-82.66668701171875
],
[
156,
-104
]
],
"lastCommittedPoint": null,
"startBinding": null,
"endBinding": null,
"startArrowhead": null,
"endArrowhead": null
},
{
"id": "DH6GK8BBMny7g3NyRNM5d",
"type": "line",
"x": 89.99998474121094,
"y": -86.31771087646484,
"width": 1.33331298828125,
"height": 236,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 1,
"strokeStyle": "dashed",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "aD",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 409587288,
"version": 67,
"versionNonce": 1226545448,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556521754,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"points": [
[
0,
0
],
[
-1.33331298828125,
236
]
],
"lastCommittedPoint": null,
"startBinding": null,
"endBinding": null,
"startArrowhead": null,
"endArrowhead": null
},
{
"id": "VtTqE2l4167dyhRlo7krt",
"type": "line",
"x": 87.99998474121094,
"y": -13.651023864746094,
"width": 101.3333740234375,
"height": 64.66665649414062,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 1,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 70,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "aE",
"roundness": {
"type": 2
},
"seed": 262963800,
"version": 141,
"versionNonce": 327858728,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556543150,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"points": [
[
0,
0
],
[
17.3333740234375,
-10.66668701171875
],
[
36.66668701171875,
0.666656494140625
],
[
48,
-32
],
[
72,
-24
],
[
101.3333740234375,
-64
]
],
"lastCommittedPoint": null,
"startBinding": null,
"endBinding": null,
"startArrowhead": null,
"endArrowhead": null
},
{
"id": "GMhORz6m",
"type": "text",
"x": -14.666702270507812,
"y": -117.6510238647461,
"width": 47.53996276855469,
"height": 25,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 1,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "aG",
"roundness": null,
"seed": 37097816,
"version": 46,
"versionNonce": 270796376,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556566301,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"text": "Past",
"rawText": "Past",
"fontSize": 20,
"fontFamily": 5,
"textAlign": "left",
"verticalAlign": "top",
"containerId": null,
"originalText": "Past",
"autoResize": true,
"lineHeight": 1.25
},
{
"id": "6UtCDHKA",
"type": "text",
"x": 111.56331634521484,
"y": -126.81771087646484,
"width": 65.03996276855469,
"height": 25,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 1,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "aH",
"roundness": null,
"seed": 1035823656,
"version": 80,
"versionNonce": 1056129880,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556568183,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"text": "Future",
"rawText": "Future",
"fontSize": 20,
"fontFamily": 5,
"textAlign": "left",
"verticalAlign": "top",
"containerId": null,
"originalText": "Future",
"autoResize": true,
"lineHeight": 1.25
},
{
"id": "3H91yFj2",
"type": "text",
"x": -139.9999542236328,
"y": 175.6823501586914,
"width": 371.51971435546875,
"height": 50,
"angle": 0,
"strokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"backgroundColor": "transparent",
"fillStyle": "solid",
"strokeWidth": 1,
"strokeStyle": "solid",
"roughness": 1,
"opacity": 100,
"groupIds": [],
"frameId": null,
"index": "aM",
"roundness": null,
"seed": 1047254056,
"version": 111,
"versionNonce": 1975690280,
"isDeleted": false,
"boundElements": [],
"updated": 1730556591298,
"link": null,
"locked": false,
"text": "We assume that the past is indicative\nof the future, so we could predict it",
"rawText": "We assume that the past is indicative\nof the future, so we could predict it",
"fontSize": 20,
"fontFamily": 5,
"textAlign": "center",
"verticalAlign": "top",
"containerId": null,
"originalText": "We assume that the past is indicative\nof the future, so we could predict it",
"autoResize": true,
"lineHeight": 1.25
}
],
"appState": {
"theme": "dark",
"viewBackgroundColor": "#ffffff",
"currentItemStrokeColor": "#1e1e1e",
"currentItemBackgroundColor": "transparent",
"currentItemFillStyle": "solid",
"currentItemStrokeWidth": 1,
"currentItemStrokeStyle": "solid",
"currentItemRoughness": 1,
"currentItemOpacity": 100,
"currentItemFontFamily": 5,
"currentItemFontSize": 20,
"currentItemTextAlign": "center",
"currentItemStartArrowhead": null,
"currentItemEndArrowhead": "arrow",
"currentItemArrowType": "round",
"scrollX": 225.97647366531794,
"scrollY": 180.7387372810399,
"zoom": {
"value": 1.410681
},
"currentItemRoundness": "round",
"gridSize": 20,
"gridStep": 5,
"gridModeEnabled": false,
"gridColor": {
"Bold": "rgba(217, 217, 217, 0.5)",
"Regular": "rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.5)"
},
"currentStrokeOptions": null,
"frameRendering": {
"enabled": true,
"clip": true,
"name": true,
"outline": true
},
"objectsSnapModeEnabled": false,
"activeTool": {
"type": "selection",
"customType": null,
"locked": false,
"lastActiveTool": null
}
},
"files": {}
}
```
%%