# Migration requirements UK ## Visas - [Standard Visitor visa](https://www.gov.uk/standard-visitor-visa) - For visits up to 6 months - E.g. holidays, business, short course of study - [Short-term study visa](https://www.gov.uk/visa-to-study-english) - For English language courses over 6 months and up to 11 months - [Student visa](https://www.gov.uk/student-visa) - Must be sponsored by a licensed college or university and have a confirmed place - [As of 2024](https://sterling-law.co.uk/uk-student-dependent-visa-new-rules-2024/), international students can only bring dependents (children, spouses) with them in exceptional circumstances. The expansion of student visas that were open to dependents came under the [Boris Johnson](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-education-strategy-2021-update/international-education-strategy-2021-update-supporting-recovery-driving-growth) government in 2020 - May be eligible to work - [Child Student visa](https://www.gov.uk/child-study-visa) - 4-17 year olds who want to study at an independent school - [Graduate visa](https://www.gov.uk/graduate-visa) - Can only apply from within the UK and need to have studied a UK bachelor's or postgrad - Can stay for 2 years (will be reduced to 18 months in 2027) - £880 application fee plus healthcare surcharge - Right to work in most jobs - [Family visas](https://www.gov.uk/uk-family-visa) - Can apply to live with a spouse, fiancé, child, parent or relative providing long-term care - Can be extended - Costs £1,321 - £1,938 for joining a partner, parent or child - Costs £1,321 - £1,938 for each dependent added on the application - Healthcare surcharges for applicant and each child - Work visas - [Health and Care](https://www.gov.uk/health-care-worker-visa) - Application fee of £304 - £590 - Must have at least £1,270 available - [Skilled Worker visa](https://www.gov.uk/skilled-worker-visa) - Must work for a Home Office approved employer, have a Certificate of Sponsorship (CoS) - [Standard salary requirement](https://www.gov.uk/skilled-worker-visa/when-you-can-be-paid-less) of £41,700 (some exemptions can lower this to £33,400) - Can last up to 5 years before needing extended - Application can last 3-8 weeks - Fee of £769 - £1,751 plus healthcare surcharge of £1,035 per year - [List](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/skilled-worker-visa-eligible-occupations/skilled-worker-visa-eligible-occupations-and-codes) of eligible and ineligible jobs - [Youth Mobility visa](https://www.gov.uk/youth-mobility) - Can live and work in the UK for up to 2 years - Aged 18-30 or 18-35 depending on country of origin - Fee of £319 plus healthcare surcharge of £776 per year and £2,530 in savings - Must have [some type](https://www.gov.uk/youth-mobility/eligibility) of UK nationality / Australia, Canada, New Zealand or South Korea - [India Young Professionals Scheme](https://www.gov.uk/india-young-professionals-scheme-visa) - Aged 18-30 for up to 2 years - Requires a bachelor's degree or above - £2,530 in savings, healthcare surcharge of £1,552 (for 2 years) and fee of £319 - [Global Talent](https://www.gov.uk/global-talent) - Academia, research, arts and culture, digital technology - Requires an endorsement or having won an eligible prize - Can stay for up to 5 years (renewable) - £766 fee and healthcare surcharge of £1,035 - [High Potential Individual](https://www.gov.uk/high-potential-individual-visa) (HPI) - Up to 2 years - Must have been awarded a qualification by an eligible university - Cannot be extended - £800 application fee, £252 to check qualification is valid, healthcare surcharge of £1,035, £1,270 in savings - [Senior or Specialist Worker](https://www.gov.uk/senior-specialist-worker-visa) - Must make at least £52,500 per year - Can stay for up to 9 years (more than 5 years if paid at least £73,900 per year) - Application fee of £769 - £1,751, healthcare surcharge of £1,035 - Dependents - [Varying](https://aceimmigration.co.uk/uk-dependent-visa-route-a-guide-for-families-joining-visa-holders-in-the-uk-2025/) rights for different visas ## Language - Most work visas require a minimum of [B1 English](https://www.coe.int/en/web/common-european-framework-reference-languages/table-1-cefr-3.3-common-reference-levels-global-scale) (independent user) - Can be proven by passing a Secure English Language Test (SELT) - [New law](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/migrants-will-be-required-to-pass-a-level-standard-of-english) (introduced 14th October) - Requires migrants to pass A-Level English test - Cuts time required to find a graduate level job after completing study to 18 months, down from two years - Increases finance requirements for student visas ## NHS - [Migrants can use the NHS](https://www.gov.uk/healthcare-immigration-application) from the date their visa starts, though most will need to pay an annual surcharge - [Annual surcharge](https://www.gov.uk/healthcare-immigration-application/how-much-pay) varies across different visas - £776 for students, their dependants, Youth Mobility Scheme visas, visa and immigration applicants under 18 - £1,035 for all other visa and migration applicants ## Points based system * Points based system usually requires workers to be paid at least the "going rate" for their job. If they are offered below the going rate (80-90%) they need to make up their points elsewhere e.g. a relevant PhD or through their job being a "shortage occupation" ([p. 16-19](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5f08a103e90e0712c5f221e0/UK_Points-Based_System_Further_Details_Web_Accessible.pdf)) # UK asylum law - Government guidelines - [Must](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/eligibility) be unable to live safely in your own country for fear of persecution - *Might* not be considered if from an EU country, or travelled through a 'safe third country' - [Required](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/documents) documents include: passports, travel documents, id documents and documents to prove UK address if already in the country - Must attend an asylum [screening](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/screening) with an immigration officer - "You'll have your screening at the UK border if you claim asylum as soon as you arrive" - [Home Office](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/after-your-screening) reviews the case after screening and applicants are sent an asylum registration card (ARC) - May be [detained](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/after-your-screening) at an 'immigration removal centre' whilst waiting for a decision on the application (appeals process also available) - If enough info is provided, applicants *may* be granted [protection](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/asylum-interview) without having to attend an interview - Applications usually [withdrawn](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/asylum-interview) if the applicant doesn't turn up to their interview - Evidence required: birth certificate, passport, national ID card - [Applications](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/decision) can take longer if verification is needed or if personal circumstances e.g. criminal conviction need to be checked - Humanitarian [protection](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/decision) available for people who can't get refugee status but also cannot return - If granted refugee status or humanitarian protection, they get to stay in the UK for a minimum of 5 years, after which they can [apply to settle in the UK](https://www.gov.uk/settlement-refugee-or-humanitarian-protection) - If '[no reason to stay](https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/decision)', applicants will be asked to leave either voluntarily (appeals available) or by force # Home Office asylum [guidelines](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/650c698227d43b0014375b40/Assessing+credibility+and+refugee+status+post+28+June+2022.pdf#page=24&zoom=100,92,890), 2022 ## Background - [Nationality and Borders Act 2022](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/36/contents/enacted) - Based on obligations under the Refugee Convention and the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) - Child's best interests are not a factor in assessing whether someone's claim of persecution is well founded, but their safety and welfare needs to be considered (p. 9) ## Relevant legislation - [Refugee Convention, 1951](https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/2025-02/1951-refugee-convention-1967-protocol.pdf) - **There is no obligation to claim asylum in a 'first safe country'**. The preamble strongly suggests that international co-operation is necessary due to the fact that *"grant of asylum may place unduly heavy burdens on certain countries"* - [1999 UK Select Committee](https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200001/cmselect/cmhaff/163/16312.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com) argued that the convention "does recognise that people may travel to more distant countries, perhaps on the grounds of family links, before seeking asylum", but is nonetheless "open to a country to return an asylum seeker to a safe country through which they have travelled." - [UNHCR Conclusion No. 15 (XXX)](https://www.refworld.org/policy/exconc/excom/1979/en/49457) argues that countries overwhelmed by a large-scale influx should be assisted by other nations "in accordance with the principle of equitable burden-sharing" - "Regard should be had to the concept that asylum should not be refused solely on the ground that it could be sought from another State." - ECHR, 1953 - UK Human Rights Act, 1998 makes it unlawful for a public authority to breach UK obligations under the ECHR ## Preliminary consideration - Safe third country cases - Must consider whether the claim should be referred for third country inadmissibility action if the "Third Country Unit" (TCU) has not already considered such a course - Multiple applications - Asylum seekers fingerprinted to make sure they don't attempt fraudulent second claims - Criminal charges - People with pending criminal cases for less serious serious crimes are interviewed and processed in the usual way - Victims of modern slavery - National Referral Mechanism for potential victims of trafficking and slavery ## Obtaining evidence - Burden of proof - Requires all available documents as early as possible - Notes that claimants may have difficulty in providing documents to support their claim - Evidence to be considered - Screening interview, statements made to the Immigration Officer before the claim, information in the visa application - Preliminary information questionnaire (PIQ) - Statement of evidence form (SEF) - Evidence such as news articles, statements from family or associates, police reports, political party membership cards - Relevant country of origin information (COI) - Passports, any medical records, any language analysis report - Taking evidence at the interview - Substantive interview combined with relevant country information - "Oral testimony is usually the most important evidence" - Later concerns can be requested in writing or over the phone - Documentary evidence - "Cannot simply rely on doubts as to the veracity of the account given by the claimant as a reason for rejecting other evidence that may support the asylum claim." - Exceptional circumstances where people are required to verify the authenticity of a document - Overseas documents - Tanveer Ahmed principle that "it is for an individual claimant to show that a document on which he seeks to rely can be relied on." - Allegations of forgery considered to be very rare - COI information - Used to help understanding the claimant's account, preparing appropriate questions, determining credibility of statements and assessing risk of return - Country Policy and Information Notes (CPINs) available for handling claims ## First stage of assessment - Decision maker must determine that fear of persecution is **more likely than not** and that the claimant has a characteristic that would warrant this fear - Ill treatment and discrimination may cumulatively amount to persecution but this is not always the case (e.g. lack of same sex marriage rights) - Material facts accepted or rejected - Decision made on whether the feared harm amounts to persecution - All decisions must be made within the Refugee Convention - Protected categories include race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group (PSG) - PSG principles largely drawn from [Shah and Islam (1999)](http://www.bailii.org/cgi-bin/markup.cgi?doc=/uk/cases/UKHL/1999/20.html&query=shah+and+islam+and+UKHL+and+20&method=boolean) (which determined that women in Pakistan were not protected by the state) that **both** conditions must be met 1. Members share an innate characteristic or common immutable background or their characteristic is so fundamental that a person should not be forced to renounce it 2. Identity is distinct because it is perceived as distinct in their society - If a PSG exists in case law, the official doesn't need to make their own determination - For new determinations: - It is not necessary to show that *all* PSG members are persecuted - Persecution cannot be the only factor which defines the group - PSG cannot include acts which are criminal in the UK e.g. paedophilia - Political beliefs - Someone who is likely to have to lie about their political beliefs or hide them *may* be entitled to refugee status # Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill 2025 ## Lord's briefing [paper](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/LLN-2025-0023/LLN-2025-0023.pdf) - Repeals [Safety of Rwanda Act](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2024/8), 2024 - Repeals 56 of 62 substantive sections of the Illegal Migration Act 2023 - Removes the refusal to process asylum claims of illegal arrivals and the duty to arrange removal - Doesn't repeal: - expanding powers of migration detention - disqualification from modern slavery protections for those who committed criminal offences - Expansion of rules on when a claim is not processed due to arrival from a safe country - Requirement of the home secretary to cap the number of people who can enter through "safe and legal routes" - Expansion of circumstances where the credibility of an asylum seeker's story should be seen as damaged - Adds electronic monitoring, curfews, inclusion zones, and exclusion zones which can be attached to a grant of limited leave to enter or remain (these can also be imposed as conditions of immigration bail) - Allows for the 1951 rule against refoulment to be lifted in some cases e.g. if convicted of a particularly serious crime (including violations of the Sexual Offences Act) - Broadens the understanding of a serious crime e.g. possession of weapons, fraud, money laundering, drug trafficking # Australia's "Stop the Boats" policy ## Refugee origins * [Boats](https://backspace.com/is/in/the/house/work/pg/indonesia_migration.html) that enter Australia tend to arrive from Indonesia or East Timor but these are transit countries for the people on board who mostly originate from Somalia, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar * The overwhelming majority of people fleeing these countries stay in the nearest country * [Bangladesh](https://thepsha.org/crisis/bangladesh-rohingya-crisis) hosts over a million Rohingya Muslims * [Pakistan and Iran](https://www.statista.com/chart/25559/host-countries-of-afghan-refugees/) were hosting over 2.3 million Afghan refugees in 2020, whilst Australia was only hosting 11,000 * The majority of small boat arrivals are successful in their applications ([p. 30](https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/asylum-trends-aus-2012-13.pdf)) ## Operation Sovereign Borders ### Timeline * August 2012 - July 2013: Offshore processing implemented * [24,000](https://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/sites/kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/files/Policy_Brief_11_Offshore_Processing.pdf?fbclid=IwAR11JDbxUxO5NUhJYuYY7EZD7C6TdBkzs5YsEFJcaALyUXMlJmAKoqNo0HI) asylum seekers arrive by boat (1,050 sent offshore, despite the policy being applied to everyone) * September 2013: Operation Sovereign Borders officially begins * 2014: 0 **recorded** drownings and crossings ### Legislation * [Australian Border Force Act 2015](https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2015A00040/2016-06-16/text) * 42(1)(b) A person commits an offence if they "make a record of" or disclose information ## IHRL * Australia relies on international courts for trade, crime prevention, protection of citizens when they travel etc. and even took Japan to the [ICJ](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/148) in 2010 over whaling in the Antarctic * Neither Malaysia nor Indonesia are party to the 1951 Refugee Convention ## The costs * Comparing costs of offshore detention with asylum seeking in Australia * $4,429 for an asylum seeker to live in Australia on a bridging visa * $362,000 to hold someone in detention in Australia * $3.4m to hold someone offshore in Nauru or Papua New Guinea * [May 2024 update](https://www.unsw.edu.au/content/dam/pdfs/law/kaldor/resources/2024-05-factsheet/2024-05-cost-of-australias-refugee-and-aslyum-policy.pdf) * Australia [paid](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/14/government-to-pay-damages-to-manus-island-detainees-in-class-action) $70m in damages to 1,905 Manus detainees in a class action suit * [By 2019](https://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/sites/kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/files/Policy_Brief_11_Offshore_Processing.pdf?fbclid=IwAR11JDbxUxO5NUhJYuYY7EZD7C6TdBkzs5YsEFJcaALyUXMlJmAKoqNo0HI), almost all detainees in Nauru and PNG were medically evacuated to Australia. By 2021, they were still there * By [2025](https://asrc.org.au/2025/02/12/offshore-health-crisis-deepens-advocates-call-on-labor-to-reinstate-medevac-legislation/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), around 100 people were still in Nauru and 39 men along with their families are in PNG ## Outcomes * They didn't stop the boats; they stopped counting * [By 2018](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/19/i-stopped-these-scott-morrison-keeps-migrant-boat-trophy-in-office), boats were still arriving in Australian territory e.g. Cocos Keeling, Saibai, far-north Queensland * [2017, Michael Outram](https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/how-to-flee-persecution-properly-and-other-nonsense-rhymes,10914), Acting Commissioner of the Border Force admitted that OSB doesn't cover all of Australia: *"we get illegal arrivals in Australia at the border all the time and have done for many years"* * Number asylum claims from people arriving by plane increased following OSB * 18,290 in 2016-17 to 27,931 in 2017-18 * [2019-20](https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/migration-trends-highlights-2020-21.PDF): 14,146 applications (11,684 non-IMAs vs 2,642 IMAs) * [Between 2013 and 2022](https://humanrights.gov.au/education/stats-facts/statistics-about-refugees-and-people-seeking-asylum#:~:text=Most%20people%20who%20seek%20asylum,permanent%20Protection%20visa%20in%20Australia.), 143,749 people arrived by plane and applied for asylum * [People arriving by plane](https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/migration-trends-highlights-2020-21.PDF) are less likely to be granted asylum * Iran - 68%, Pakistan - 42%, Turkey - 70% * Number of asylum seekers in Australia remains low, but people still arrived * [2012-2022](https://humanrights.gov.au/education/stats-facts/statistics-about-refugees-and-people-seeking-asylum#:~:text=Most%20people%20who%20seek%20asylum,permanent%20Protection%20visa%20in%20Australia.), Australia recognised or resettled 180,073 refugees (less than 1% of all asylum applications made globally) * Despite OSBs secrecy, it can be easily inferred that many of these pushbacks will have been violent or even deadly * [Incident](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/media/wopapub/senate/committee/maritime_incident_ctte/report/report_pdf.ashx) in 2002 when 3 vessels sank during an interception (p. 27) # What has Labour done? - [July 2025](https://www.irwinmitchell.com/news-and-insights/expert-comment/post/102ku1y/more-than-100-skilled-occupations-to-be-removed-from-22-july-2025-in-sweeping-ch): Removed over 100 skilled occupations from the list of those eligible for visas - [Increased](https://www.nhsemployers.org/articles/impacts-changes-uk-immigration-policy) the general salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas to £41,700 - Up from £38,700 in April 2024 (the old rate was £26,200) - [Health and Care](https://www.gov.uk/health-care-worker-visa/your-partner-and-children) workers can no longer bring their dependents as of 22 July 2025 - [11 May 2025 White Paper](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6821f334ced319d02c906103/restoring-control-over-the-immigration-system-web-optimised.pdf) - Migrants must be in the UK for 10 years before they can apply for settlement (p. 69) - Adults accompanying foreign workers need to pass an English language test (p. 43) - Ends overseas recruitment for social care visas (p. 27) - Abolishes discounts from salary thresholds, meaning people on work visas will have to earn **at least** the going rate for their job, even if there is a shortage (p. 25) # Why did net migration increase so sharply after Brexit? * TLDR: * Brexit only dealt with immigration from inside the EU * Since 2016, net migration has from the EU has declined from an all-time high of 277,000 * In 2022, net migration from the EU was negative for the first time (-9,000) and reached an all-time low in 2024-25 (~70,000) * Before Brexit, annual net migration from outside of the EU **never** went above 100,000 * In 2023, net migration from non-EU countries was just over a million * In 2024, after Labour's election victory, net migration from non-EU countries was 528,000 * In YE June 2025, net migration from non-EU countries was 383,000 * Figures * Before 2018, most immigrants coming to the UK were from the EU. Now, the overwhelming majority are from outside the EU and net-migration from the EU has been negative every year since 2021 ([Table 1](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/longterminternationalimmigrationemigrationandnetmigrationflowsprovisional)) * From YE 2012 to 2015, annual net migration increased from 195,000 to 303,000 * From 2016-2021 net migration fell (184,000 in YE 2019 just before COVID) but this was entirely due to a drop in EU net-migration. At the same time, non-EU net migration increased well past 100,000 for the first time (186,000 in YE 2019) * Since the end of COVID, net migration has reached unprecedented heights, even as EU net migration is consistently negative * YE 2021: 484,000 * YE 2022: 873,000 * YE 2023: 860,000 * YE 2024: 431,000 * [Small boat arrivals](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/) have also increased dramatically since 2018 (about a third of asylum applications) * 2018: 299 * 2021: 28,526 * 2022: 45,755 * 2023: 29,437 * 2024: 36,818 * 2025 (up to mid-July): 22,504 - the highest in a 7 month period * [Only 5%](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/eu-migration-to-and-from-the-uk/) of all visas were granted to EU members after Brexit * In 2023, EU citizens made up 53% of those refused entry at the UK border * EU membership for the UK * Being outside of the Shengen area, the UK retained the right to carry out border checks on EU nationals entering the country * In 2000, [net migration](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/eu-migration-to-and-from-the-uk/) from the EU was only 6,000 before it increased to 80-120,000 after the EU enlargement 2004 * After the recession, it dropped to 60-80,000 before recovering in 2012 and peaking at 282,400 at the time of Brexit * [Make-up](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingdecember2022#non-eu-reason-for-migration) of migration increase post-COVID * Sharp rise in students (~115,000 to ~330,000) * Work visas (~80,000 to 137,000, then 235,000) * Humanitarian (1,000 to 57,000, then 172,000) * Asylum (32,000 to ~60,000) * Make-up of visas post-COVID (2022) * Student visa increase is mostly due to dependents (44,000 out of 60,000 new arrivals in 2022) - driven by dependent visas from Nigeria and India * Humanitarian mostly made up of Ukrainians (114,000) and British Nationals overseas (52,000) * [Most work visas](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2022/why-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-work) in 2022 were long-term sponsored work (62%) * Temporary Workers made up 26% * [86%](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2022/why-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-work) of long-term work visas were "Skilled Worker" and "Health and Care" in 2022 (54% of all work visas) * Indians were the top nationality on long-term work visas in 2022 * Slightly more Health and Care than Skilled Worker visas * [Overall visa grants increase](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/why-has-non-eu-migration-to-the-uk-risen/) from 2019 to 2022 (long-term) * 42% of the increase was made up by students and their family members (mostly Indian and Nigerian) * 35% came from Ukraine and Hong Kong * 24% from work arrivals * [Humanitarian totals](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-september-2024/how-many-people-come-to-the-uk-via-safe-and-legal-humanitarian-routes#:%7E:text=In%20the%20year%20ending%20September%202024%2C%20there%20were%20a%20total,Resettlement) * 265,150 Ukrainian visas granted from 2022-2024 * 174,307 BN(O) visas granted from 2021-2024 * 30,412 Afghans resettled from 2021-2024 * [Asylum applications](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) * 84,200 in 2024 * Peak of 84,100 in 2002, followed by a sharp decline, the lowest being 17,900 in 2010 (roughly 27,500 per year from 2011-20) * [Dublin Regulation](https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/migration-and-asylum/asylum-eu/country-responsible-asylum-application-dublin-regulation_en) * Allowed the UK to return asylum applicants to their first EU country of arrival * Ended for the UK in 2021 # Small Boats * [70% of small boat arrivals](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/) since 2018 have come from 6 countries: Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Albania, Syria and Eritrea * Albanian arrivals spiked in 2022 but have since largely declined * In 2024, most arrivals were from Afghanistan, then Syria, Iran, Vietnam, Eritrea, Sudan * In YE March 2024, 99% of small boat arrivals had an asylum claim recorded * [From 2018-2023](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-march-2024/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-march-2024), the asylum grant rate for small boat arrivals was 72% (56% if withdrawals are factored in) * [Reduced cost](https://mixedmigration.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/373_Beyond-Restrictions-Med-Atl-and-Eng-Channel-REPORT.pdf) * In 2018, some estimates put the cost of a crossing at 14,000 Euros but this has since fallen to 1,000 - 3,000 Euros as new smuggling networks have emerged, raising competition (p. 27) # Polls * In the 1990s, only around 2-6% of Brits saw immigration as the biggest issue * It would then fluctuate from around 25-40% in the 2000s * From the 2008 crash, it fell - sometimes to under 20% - before climbing back up to 40% and above from 2014-16 * After the Brexit vote, migration concerns rapidly declined (down to less than 10%), even as the EU Common market dominated the conversation * By late 2024, it was back up to 33-38% as the top issue for voters * Source: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/uk-public-opinion-toward-immigration-overall-attitudes-and-level-of-concern/ # Sharia Councils https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a750e8040f0b6397f35d531/6.4152_HO_CPFG_Report_into_Sharia_Law_in_the_UK_WEB.pdf # Economic impact * A [study](https://res.org.uk/mediabriefing/immigration-and-house-prices-evidence-of-the-impact-in-uk-local-areas/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from 2015 found that a 1% rise in the number of immigrants led to a 1.7% reduction in house prices in certain communities * This seems to happen in areas where the general education levels of migrants is low and where higher earners in the community are likely to move * It is also the case that a [significant](https://www.citb.co.uk/media/nwefbu4r/final-english-migration-report-june-2023.pdf) proportion (14%) of construction workers are foreign born (p. 7) * [Static vs dynamic research](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-in-the-uk/) on fiscal contribution * Static research can sometimes show migrants to cost the tax payer, but only by around 1% of GDP * Dynamic research, which considers the taxes that migrant children will pay when they reach adulthood, show migrants to be net contributors * OBR forecasts tend to show that higher net migration leads to slightly lower deficits and debt. This is because migrants are more likely to be of working age than the general population * Housing priorities * [New migrants](https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/comment/debunking-the-myths-about-migrants-and-housing/5136552.article?utm_source=chatgpt.com) are only eligible for social housing in limited circumstances (e.g. made homeless by domestic abuse) * [People](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-and-housing-in-the-uk/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) on work, study or family visas are subject to the "No Recourse to Public Funds" (NRPF) condition, preventing them from accessing state-funded welfare # Indefinite leave to remain (settlement) * [Requirements](https://www.gov.uk/indefinite-leave-to-remain) * Must have lived and worked in the UK for 5 years (will be increased to 10 by Labour) * Wait time can be shorter (2-3 years) with a tier 1 visa * Can also apply if you have a partner, parent or child settled in the UK * [Reform plans](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c930xypxpqpo) * Replace ILR with visas that force people to reapply every five years * Applicants will need a higher salary and standard of English * Changes won't apply to EU nationals (4 million people) protected by the European Union Withdrawal Agreement * Farage acknowledges this will split families and remove integrated people from communities * 4 million people currently in the UK on visas who arrived from 2015-2024 * 2.1 million have a path to settlement * Claimed that leaving ILR unchanged would cost £234 billion * Thatcher-founded think tank, which later said their cost estimates "should no longer be used" after being challenged by the Office for Budget Responsibility * Farage said the "exact figure" was actually "without doubt too low" # Crime * Overrepresentation in prison * [18%](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/) of the prison population, but only 7% of the population * [Conversion](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5cf7a35440f0b663fd865a2a/exploring-nature-muslim-groups-related-gang-activity.pdf) to Islam in prison is commonplace, either due to coercion from gangs or to adopt a stricter lifestyle * Though most Muslims in prison are part of 'brotherhoods' that are distinct from the gangs (p. 10-11), most gang members were "in-prison converts to the faith with little knowledge of Islam and little interest in adhering to the religious practices (p. 14) * [Jamie Spencer-Churchill](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/duke-marlborough-prison-islam-conversion-jail-aristocrat-ramadan-jamie-spencerchurchill-a7879571.html), the Duke of Marlborough converted to Islam in prison, claiming to have done so to get 'more food' * [Home Office research](https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/2010/06/islam_prison_1.html) once found that 30% of Muslim inmates were converts * [Buddhists](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2023) are more overrepresented than Muslims in prison ([1.94%](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2023) of prison vs [0.49%](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021#religion-in-england-and-wales) of the general pop.) * Crime inference * Police don't record crime by religion but they do by ethnicity * [British Muslims](https://www.ons.gov.uk/datasets/RM031/editions/2021/versions/1) are 66% Asian, 14% Other, 11% Black, 6% White and 4% Mixed * Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Arabs are most of the UK's Muslim population * Asians make up [~9%](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/ethnicity/bulletins/ethnicgroupenglandandwales/census2021) of the population but [8%](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/ethnicity-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2022/statistics-on-ethnicity-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2022-html#offence-analysis) of the arrests, 6% of convictions, 7% of custodial sentences * [Arrest](https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/crime-justice-and-the-law/policing/number-of-arrests/latest/#by-ethnicity) rates * 8.7% Bangladeshi, 11.3% Pakistani, 4.8% Arab, 9.4% White * Three Muslim groups [slightly](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-justice-system-statistics-quarterly-june-2023) overrepresented among indictable offences (4.7% vs 4.4% of the population) * Muslims are **much** younger - [27](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/articles/religionbyageandsexenglandandwales/census2021#religion-by-age) on average, whereas the average white person in England and Wales is 43 * [Black arrest rates](https://www.aporiamagazine.com/p/british-muslims-dont-commit-a-lot?utm_source=chatgpt.com) are around 21.1 per 1,000 and they make up 14.1% of those dealt with for most serious offences (but are only 4% of the general population) - why would a politically correct justice system be okay going after black Brits but not Muslims? * [outcomes by offence data tool](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-justice-system-statistics-quarterly-june-2023) * YE 2023 * Total indictable offences: 21,200 * 641 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (3%) * YE 2022 * Total indictable offences: 17,855 * 673 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (3.8%) * YE 2021 * Total indictable offences: 20,946 * 792 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (3.8%) * Demographics * Bangladeshis: 1.1% ; Pakistanis: 2.7% ; Arabs: 0.6% (4.4% of population) * [Sexual offences by ethnicity](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-justice-system-statistics-quarterly-june-2023) * YE 2023 * Total proceedings: 5,199 * 188 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (3.6%) * YE 2022 * Total indictable offences: 3,717 * 186 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (5%) * YE 2021 * Total indictable offences: 3,863 * 162 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (4.2%) * [Rape by ethnicity](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-justice-system-statistics-quarterly-june-2023) * YE 2023 * Total proceedings: 3,427 * 121 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (3.5%) * YE 2022 * Total proceedings: 2,392 * 139 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (5.8%) * YE 2021 * Total proceedings: 2,343 * 113 Bangladeshis, Arabs and Pakistanis proceeded against (4.8%) # Japan ## Economy * Japan's [annual wages](https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/average-annual-wages.html) are below the OECD average - above Poland and Latvia but below Lithuania and Italy * Japan's [GDP per capita](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=OE-GB-JP&most_recent_value_desc=false) is well below the OECD average and is currently the same as it was in 1998 ## OECD report * Employment * Job offer-to-applicant ratio was 1.4 from 2014-19 * Age * 20% of Japan is 65 or over * Elderly dependency ratio is the highest in the OECD (p. 8) * Government fertility target is 1.8 up from 1.4 * Government pledge to "create a children-first economic society and reverse the birth rate decline" * Prime Minister in 2023: "The next 6-7 years are our last chance to see if we can reverse the \[fertility] trend" * Government spending for the elderly is 9% of GDP vs 1.9% for families * Families * 2020 survey showed only 38% of Japanese agreed it was easy to raise children vs 77% in Germany, 82% in France and 97% in Sweden * France comparison * 3.4% of GDP on families (OECD average is 2.3%) - largely tax breaks but also social assistance, housing subsidies and other means-tested benefits * Labour * Output per hour 44% below the average of the top half of OECD countries in 2021 * [In 2016](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2019/04/oecd-economic-surveys-japan-2019_ccac75f4/fd63f374-en.pdf), 22% of Japanese men worked over 49 hours per week * Social norms * 28% of men and 18% of women over 50 had never married (2020) * Social issues * [35%](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2019/04/oecd-economic-surveys-japan-2019_ccac75f4/fd63f374-en.pdf) of Japanese adults perceive their health as good (OECD average of 69%) * Japan's subjective-well being is [well below](https://www.oecd.org/en/data/tools/oecd-better-life-index.html) the OECD average * Japan's perceptions on civic engagement are the [third lowest](https://www.oecd.org/en/data/tools/oecd-better-life-index.html) in the OECD * They only appear to be above the average on "knowledge & skills" and "safety", though in the latter case, they rank below the UK and Israel * [Third lowest](https://www.oecd.org/en/data/tools/oecd-better-life-index.html) for work-life balance (only behind Turkey and Costa Rica) * [5th highest](https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/suicide-rates.html) suicide rate in the OECD - [increasing](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5912485/) for both genders and youths - linked to economic instability and reduced family family support * [Link](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2024/04/addressing-demographic-headwinds-in-japan-a-long-term-perspective_85b9a67f/96648955-en.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) ## Migration increases * Despite their longstanding rejection of "mass immigration", even Japan has become increasingly reliant on foreign workers to counterweight their aging population * In [2025](https://archive.ph/3TOEi), the number of foreign workers in Japan grew to over 2.5 million, up 11.7% from the previous year * Almost 4% of Japanese workers are now foreign born * For comparison, foreign-born workers made up around 7.5% of the [British](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN07056/SN07056.pdf) workforce in 1997 # Deportations * [Farage](https://www.youtube.com/live/rnpZ4W1C15k?si=7PeLdl3WNOyK7bpQ&t=7838) telling porkies about deportation numbers: claims that Labour deported 50,000 people in 2009-10, but that 'none of that anymore' - [Summary](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/control-of-immigration-quarterly-statistical-summary-first-quarter-2011) in 2011 shows that deportations from 2007-2010, an average of 50,000 people were removed if you include: 1. Enforced removals 2. Voluntary departures 3. Refused entry at port and subsequent removal![[Pasted image 20240725162100.png]] - [Data](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-december-2018/how-many-people-are-detained-or-returned) from 2014-2018 shows numbers are similar (perhaps even higher) under the Conservatives![[Pasted image 20240725162227.png]] - Data from 2015-2024 shows numbers dropped during COVID but have since started to pick up [Figure 5](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-march-2024/how-many-people-are-detained-or-returned) - Year ending Mar 2023: ~37,000 removals - Year ending Mar 2024: ~45,000 removals