## Economy #### Issues - Cost of living / inflation - [Adjusted for inflation](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyxx1lq50nlo), the average Brit is only 5% better off than at the end of the 08/09 crisis - Productivity - [UK performing](https://www.productivity.ac.uk/news/what-explains-the-uks-productivity-problem/#:~:text=UK%20growth,ahead%20of%20Italy%20and%20Spain.) above Italy and Spain, but below the Euro Area average and well below France, USA and Germany - Public sector - [Experienced teachers](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyxx1lq50nlo)' pay fallen 12% in real terms since 2010 - Tax - Conservatives changed corporation tax 26 times? - Railways - Fares in England due to rise by 4.9% (5.9% in 2023, largest for more than a decade) - 65% of Brits believe trains should be publicly owned (77% of Lab voters) - Labour plan to nationalise railways, but not the companies that own the trains - Great British Railways to inherit all private contracts once they expire - [Nationalisation](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/26/first-edition-labour-renationalise-rail) already occurring (nearly 1/4 train journeys in England) - 2018, temporary renationalisation of [East Coast](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/16/east-coast-rail-line-to-be-temporarily-renationalised-virgin-stagecoach) after Virgin and Stagecoach could no longer meet their promised payments (£3.3bn contract) - 2020, renationalisation of [Northern rail](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/29/northern-rail-franchise-to-be-renationalised) - 2021, nationalisation of Southeastern rail - 2023, nationalisation of [TransPennine](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/11/transpennine-express-nationalised-for-catalogue-of-failings-and-poor-service) Express - Rolling stock companies - Own and maintain engines and carriages which are then leased to train operating companies - [Profits](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/18/profits-of-uks-private-train-leasing-firms-treble-in-a-year) trebled in a year 2022-23 - £400m (up from £122m the previous year) in dividends paid whilst rest of the railway faced cuts and salary freezes - Profit margins of 41.6% (up from 14.3%) - Taxpayer subsidies at twice the pre-pandemic levels - £3.1bn on leasing trains (almost 1/4 of total industry costs) - Eversholt, Porterbrook and Angel Trains (created at privatisation) - Companies invest in upgrade programmes, development of hydrogen-powered trains, innovation and maintenance - Mick Lynch suggests windfall tax on profits, but still argues that government should eventually pursue full public ownership - [Argument](https://www.ft.com/content/97d22b91-8cb0-4e98-b277-50d03a4d2fdf) that nationalisation would result in the government buying trains which are already purchased and running under private companies - Passenger train companies spent £3.1bn (1/4 of overall expenditure) on train leases in 2022-23 #### IFS comments - [Reform UK](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-uk-manifesto-reaction) - Budget balance - Tax cuts costing £90bn per year - Spending increases of £50bn per year - £150bn reductions in other spending (pubic services, debt interest and working-age benefits) - "Spending reductions would save less than stated, and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year." - Claim that corp. tax cut would save £18bn per year - This "is less than half of what official estimates suggest the long-run cost of just this cut in the corporation tax rate to 15% would be" - £17bn a year for the NHS - Not nearly enough to achieve the goal of eliminating waiting lists (never done in the history of the NHS) within 2 years - £50 billion per year reduction in "wasteful spending" - This saving would have to come from more than just waste (would instead need cuts to quantity or quality of public services) - [Labour](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/labour-party-manifesto-initial-response#:~:text=Bee%20Boileau%2C%20Research%20Economist%20at,largely%20in%20health%20and%20education.) - Summary - Very small spending increases; trivial tax rises - Green prosperity plan - £5bn per year (funded by borrowing and windfall tax on oil and gas giants) - NHS plan to get rid of all waiting times longer than 18 weeks would require big spending - Fiscal rule allowing for only £17.5bn borrowing over five years only accounts for green prosperity plan - Labour intention to not spend more than planned by the current government - Current government plans involve cuts to investment and spending on unprotected services - Keir rules out cuts (likely hoping for economic growth) - £5bn top ups for public spending mostly pay for NHS and schools; not for reducing cuts to public services - Public finances - Manifesto focuses on growth - Benefits would not materialise until later - Questions on tax and spending will arise but are not mentioned by Labour - Fiscal rules - Rules on debt and borrowing (excluding investment) identical to what the Conservatives signed up to - Most constraining rule is to have debt as a share of national income down in 5 years - Rule is "arbitrary and gameable" - £5bn a year boost easily matched by modest tax rise - Climate policy investment requires borrowing, but not enough to break the fiscal rule - Taxes - £7bn per year, mostly from limiting legal avoidance (no mention of illegal avoidance) - Proposal to close carried interest loophole expected to raise £500m per year; unclear how they would do it - Public service spending - Unprotected services (e.g. further education, prisons and criminal courts) likely to be squeezed - Overall spending on public services expected to increase annually by 1.2% in real terms (compared to 1% under the current government's plans!) - Unprotected departments would face cuts of around 1.9% to 3.5% each year (compared to 5.4% each year under 2010s Tories); £10-20bn needed over 5 years to avoid these - NHS budget needs to grow at 3.6% per year to fulfil the long-term workforce plan - "It seems more likely that money will be found from somewhere. We are not told where" - Additional £4.7bn per year for green spending (current government spends around £8bn; more than a 50% increase) - BUT still leaves total investment falling sharply (real terms and share of national income) - NHS - Current plans would require <span style="color:#f894ff">3% real-terms increase</span> of funds per year - New Labour NHS performance improved due to funding growth rates of <span style="color:#f894ff">7% per year in real terms</span> (also thanks to economic growth) - £1.8bn increase offered by Labour is <span style="color:#f894ff">less than 1%</span> of the £192bn spent on health and social care in England this financial year - Education - £175m for mental health support in schools will be a 15% increase - Core school and college funding not addressed (Cons and Lib Dems both promised to protect per-pupil spending in real terms) - 6,500 new teachers (3% increase) but little detail on how they'd be recruited; no mention of squeeze on teachers' pay - Free childcare to all children in working families from 9 months on - £4bn per year (2x current childcare spending) - Working-age benefits and labour market policy - No mention of reversing two-child limit or "bedroom tax" - Extending NLW to workers aged 18-20 (currently 21+) - 38% of 18-20 year olds earn below this - Risk of job losses; makes sense to phase in policy - 0-hour contract ban is not a total ban - A right for employees to move to a contract reflecting their average hours - [Conservative](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/conservative-manifesto-initial-response#:~:text=The%20manifesto%20sets%20out%20%C2%A3,and%20increasing%20mental%20health%20spending.) - £17bn tax cuts - Paid for by £12bn welfare reduction, crackdown on tax evasion, cut civil service numbers - £12bn welfare savings also promised in 2015 - Achieved (2 years late) through 4 years of freezes - Challenges are different today: 2x new claims for disability benefits compared to 2019 - Biggest cut = 2% off National Insurance contributions for employees, costing more than £10bn per year - No mention of £10-20bn of cuts to unprotected public services - Tax - Tax revenue as a share of national income under each manifesto: - Greens: 42.5% - Labour: 37.4% - Conservatives: 36.8% - National Insurance - Cut from 8%-6% for contributions - Abolition of main rate for self-employed (Saving of over £1,600 for £35k; basic rate of 20% vs 35%) - <span style="color:#f894ff">HOWEVER: the NIC threshold is frozen until 2027-28, meaning minimum wage employees will cross it as their wages rise and end up being taxed more</span> - Full time minimum wage employee would see a tax increase of £240 by 2029-30 whilst a self employed person earning the same would see a £300 cut - Measures ruled out - No increase of income tax, VAT, corp tax, capital gains, inheritence, business property reliefs - No change to English council tax, despite valuations being 33 years out of date - Majority of properties are effectively in the wrong band - No tax plan for electric vehicles (per mile pricing not an option) - Benefits - £12bn cut from projected welfare budget - Health-related benefits need to reduce by 1 million people (19% of total) - Assumption of return to pre-pandemic levels - Tightening of assessment procedures? - Public services - Existing plans are mostly unchanged - Top up of £500 million by 2029-30 - Implication is real-term cuts - Health and social care - Many NHS targets not met for nearly 10 years - Commitment to increase spending above inflation (this always happens) - Exceptions: mid-1950s and COVID - £1.2bn additional spending by 2029-30 - NHS workforce plan needs at least 3% above inflation (much higher than past 14 years) - Housing - Help to Buy; capital gains exemption for landlords selling to tenants - Limited supply -> increased demand from first time buyers -> increased costs for people upsizing - Young people - 15% of 18-24 year olds not in education, employment or training (highest since 2015) - National Service - Military? Public services? Improvement in skills? - School - Extra £6bn per year in school funding since 2019 - Reversal of previous cuts, bringing spending per pupil back to 2010 levels in real terms - Commitment to protect this spending in real terms (would mean 2 decades with no growth by 2029) - [Green](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/green-party-manifesto-reaction) - Economy - Increase tax rev by £170bn a year to fund £160bn boost to spending - [Much higher](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/conservative-manifesto-initial-response#:~:text=The%20manifesto%20sets%20out%20%C2%A3,and%20increasing%20mental%20health%20spending.) than Labour, Lib Dem and Con - Railways and big 5 energy companies nationalised - Additional £90bn a year on capital spending (big increase to borrowing) - £40bn a year shift to green economy - Min wage increase to £15; 1:10 pay ratio cap for private and public (currently 1:59) - 4 day week - Free bus travel for under 18s - Good for revenue - Increase in NI contributions on earnings above £50,000 (upper earnings limit removed) - Closing loopholes in inheritance - Re-evaluation of council tax - Not so good - Doubtful £90bn from carbon tax (if the goal is to reduce the behaviour, it would also reduce the tax revenue) - To raise this much would mean everyone is affected - Windfall tax only temporary - NHS - £8bn increase (Lab: 2bn, Con: 1bn, LD: 6bn) - Counsellor in every school and 6th form college - Euthanasia legalised - Migration - "Open borders" quote - probably doesn't mean much in terms of actions - Asylum process and rights acknowledged, people allowed to work whilst their application is being decided - Legal residents of other countries allowed to vote - We [already](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8985/) allow this in Scottish and Welsh elections ![[Pasted image 20240703175403.png]] - Foreign policy - Scrap trident but stay in NATO - Support Ukraine - Re-join EU - Israel-Palestine - Bi-lateral ceasefire - End arms sales to Israel & support South Africa at the ICJ - Problematic candidates - [Adam Pugh](https://x.com/adampugh) [supporting Oct 7th](https://x.com/habibi_uk/status/1796549467178467786) and hoping for 2 Royal Navy vessels to sink in the Mediterranean - [Nataly Anderson](https://x.com/natalyanderson) saying Oct 7th looked 'very orchestrated' - [Kefentse Dennis](https://www.thetimes.com/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fc0bac1c6-e0cb-48b8-a86c-51bf65e7c3bf.jpg?crop=650%2C662%2C0%2C0&resize=1180) supporting Palestinian protest outside Auschwitz - [Simon Anthony](https://x.com/tortysoft) [comparing Hamas](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/green-party-candidates-shared-antisemitic-slurs-and-conspiracy-theories-gsz7j57wl) to the Home Guard and the French Resistance from WW2 - Conclusions - Good economic ideas despite some flaws - Strong social policy, including on asylum - Slightly batshit foreign policy; unfortunate that above mentioned candidates were still allowed to run - ["Fully costed"](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/how-should-we-interpret-parties-public-spending-pledges-election) - Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - Government sets out plans for total public service spending over next few years. This helps to forecast borrowing and debt - Two 'envelopes' - 1. Day-to-day public service spending - Set to grow 1% in real terms each year - 2. Total investment spending - Held flat, implying cuts in real terms - Department-by-department spending not revealed; little indication where cuts will fall - Manifestos - Conservative - Increase NATO-qualifying defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 - Increase NHS spending in line with inflation (maybe a bit above) - Increase per-pupils school funding in line with inflation (maybe above) - 250 new GP surgeries; £183 million in 2028-29 - Labour - Free breakfast clubs in primary schools; £315 million - Health commitments - £1.8bn additional NHS spending from Labour; £1bn from Conservatives - In context, this is only a 0.9% and 0.5% increase to the total budget (£192m) respectively - PROBLEM: Increase is set for 2028-29; there is no indication what the baseline budget will be by then (it could fall in real terms, though this is unlikely) - Real terms budget fall ruled out by Conservatives but not by Labour - 0.8% real terms increase = overall departmental spending envelope - NHS has grown faster than average public spending since 1986 - 3.6% real increase required for NHS workforce plan (Labour and Conservative promise) - Gap between promised additional spending = £1bn a year, whereas gap between different baselines can reach around £40bn a year - Conservative defence spending commitment - Cost could vary depending on how defence spending stands relative to GDP by 2030 (£20bn range of difference) - Initial gov claim that it would be a £75bn increase over 6 years (implying defence spending frozen in absolute terms) - Manifesto costing assumes defence spending stays at 2.3% of GDP, making the final cost £24bn - Unprotected areas - £5bn top up from Labour means real-terms resource spending will grow at 1.2% a year (compared to the 1% default) - Protected areas seem to be NHS, defence, aid spending, schools funding and childcare commitments (2/3 of total day-today spending) - All other areas e.g. prisons, courts, further education facing cuts between 1.9% and 3.5% - Recommendations - Rough minimums or totals for different areas of spending - Spending Reviews to cover a long period and be reviewed every 3 years - Ensures there are always baselines for at least 2 years when manifestos are produced ## NHS - Waiting lists - Around 1,500 hospitals in NHS England - [UK falling behind](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqll1edxgw4o) European neighbours on outcomes but also spending less (2019-2022): - £6,309 for Germany - £6,120 for Norway - £5,229 for France - £4,326 for the UK ## Immigration - Rwanda - Conservatives have £541m over 5 years set aside for this policy - Stop the Boats - [Stats](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/) ![[Pasted image 20240618183535.png]] - Net migration at 685,000 in 2023 - Generally between 2-300,000 from 2010 onwards - Drop during COVID - Caps - 2011 cap on skilled workers imposed by David Cameron - Widely criticised and then scrapped by Boris after Brexit - [Current policy](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ba26c1de5274a54d5c39be2/Final_EEA_report.PDF) allows 20,700 high-skilled workers into the UK on Tier 2 visas annually - Salary threshold is £30,0000 - [Migration Advisory Committee](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ba26c1de5274a54d5c39be2/Final_EEA_report.PDF) recommends that there doesn't need to be a work route for low-skilled workers from the EU to fill jobs in areas such as catering or hospitality - But "possible exception" for seasonal agriculture (99% of workers from EU countries) - [Migration Advisory Committee](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ba26c1de5274a54d5c39be2/Final_EEA_report.PDF) report - EEA migrants pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits, p. 71 - No "[compelling reasons to offer a different set of rules](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ba26c1de5274a54d5c39be2/Final_EEA_report.PDF)" for workers from the EEA than those from other countries, p. 4 - Survey from 2014: 43% felt immigrants take out more; only 31% felt they pay more in taxes - No evidence that migration has any effect on crime rates in England and Wales, p. 102 ([Annex G](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5b9bde48e5274a3fb0259181/Final_annexes_to_go_to_WEB.PDF), p. 43) ## Housing - History of government pledges - [1997-2006 pledges](https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/governments-since-1997-have-failed-to-build-600000-houses) of 200,000 homes per year - Only met from 2004-06 - Brown upped pledge to 240,000 - Never met (~215,000 before recession, then fall to under 150,000 by 2011) - Tories return to 200,000 pledge in 2010 - Number goes from less than 150,000 to just over 160,000 - Fewer than 150,000 homes started in the last 12 months - [Average](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyxx1lq50nlo) of 152,000 per year in the last decade - Private builders have only delivered more than 170,000 in a year twice (1970s) - Avg of 123,000 a year in the last decade - Last year, housing associations started 30,000 homes and English councils, only 3,000 ## Energy / Environment - Net Zero - Investment, subsidy / nationalisation - [£3.5bn of public](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyxx1lq50nlo) "green" investments currently - Includes upgrading homes and investing in hydrogen - Far lower than the [package deployed by Biden](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68667140) (£61bn under the BIL) ## Parties #### Labour - [Manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf) - Five missions - Economic growth - Clean energy superpower - Tackle crime - Social mobility - NHS - National Security - Absolute commitment to nuclear deterrent (1st sentence - shaking off Corbyn) - 2.5% of GDP on defence - Border security - Scrapping Rwanda scheme - Border Security Command (funded by Rwanda scheme money) - New investigators, intelligence officers and cross-border police - Targeting smuggling gangs - 1,000 staff returns unit to fast-track removals of failed asylum seekers to safe countries - Economic stability - Pledge to not increase NI, basic, higher or additional Income Tax, or VAT - National Wealth Fund of £7.3 billion over 5 years - £1.8bn upgrading ports and building supply chains across the UK - £1.5bn for new 'gigafactories' (green cars?) - £2.5bn to rebuild steel industry - £1bn to accelerate carbon capture - £500m for manufacturing green hydrogen - Tax - Cap corporation tax at 25%, lowest in the G7 for the entire parliament - Will act according to tax changes in other countries that might risk UK competitiveness - Infrastructure - 10 year infrastructure plan - National 5g coverage by 2030 - Scrutinise any proposed takeover of Royal Mail - Phase out date of 2030 for new cars with internal combustion engines - Bringing railways into public ownership - As contracts with existing operators expire or are broken due to unfulfilled terms - Lifting ban on municipal ownership of buses - Gives local communities in England control over routes and schedules - Aim to double the size of the co-operative sector - Make Work Pay - Within 100 days - Ban on zero hour contracts - Ending fire and rehire - Basic rights from day one: - Parental leave - Sick pay - Protection from unfair dismissal - Minimum wage up to a living wage - Removal of age bands - Clean energy - Oil & fossil fuels - No new licences for exploring new fields - No new coal licences - Ban fracking - Close loopholes in windfall tax on oil and gas companies - Great British Energy - Publicly owned investor in capital-intensive projects - £8.3bn over the next parliament - Partner with energy companies, local authorities and co-ops to install clean power projects (wind, solar and hydropower) - Jobs - National Wealth Fund investment into ports, hydrogen and industrial clusters - £500m per year to award clean energy developers with a British Jobs Bonus - Homes - £6.6bn over 5 years (double the Tory plan) to upgrade 5 million homes - Water - Empower regulators to block bonuses of executives who pollute waterways - Criminal charges against persistent law breakers - Crime - Violence against women - Specialist rape and sexual offence steams in every police force - Fast-track rape cases with specialist courts at every Crown Court location - Address misogyny in schools - New criminal offence for spiking - Fraud - New expanded fraud strategy for online, public sector and serious fraud - Education - Free breakfast clubs in every primary school - End VAT exemption and business rate relief for private schools - 6,500 new teachers - Access to mental health specialists in every school - LGBT+ - All strands of hate crime changed to an aggravated offence - Full trans-inclusive ban on conversion practices - [Ban](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-56496423) was already introduced in 2023? ([Cons](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64304142) tried to scrap plans, but then backtracked) - Cons used the Cass review to try and remove the trans-conversion ban; [mental health groups](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61018404) pushed back - [Cass seems to support ban](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/11/hilary-cass-warns-kemi-badenoch-over-risks-of-conversion-practices-ban) but signals importance of intent - 8% of UK trans people been offered conversion therapy; 4% have undergone it - NHS - 2 million extra operations, scans and appointments per year (40,000 per week) - 8,500 new mental health staff over 5 years - Up from over 140,000? [17,000 staff left](https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/196555/concerning-pressures-on-nhs-mental-health-staff-causing-vicious-cycle-of-staff-shortages/) in 2021-22 alone, 14% citing work-life balance - Workforce increased by 22% from 2016-2022 whilst referrals went up by 44% - Double the number of CT and MRI scanners (NHS has fewer per person than 'other countries'?) - Implement the Cass Review - Ensure the next generation can never legally buy cigarettes - Ban on vapes being branded and advertised to appeal to children - Online Safety Act (not well defined) - Constitution - Public services - Restrictions on ministers lobbying for companies they used to regulate - Ban on MPs taking paid advisory or consultancy roles - Lords - Removal of hereditary peers - Retirement of peers at age 80 - Consult on proposals for a replacement - Voting rights - Right to vote for 16-17 year olds - Union - New Council of the Nations and Regions - Restore decision-making over allocation of structural funds to reps of Scotland, Wales and NI - Scotland - Devolution settlement for Scotland (vague as fuck?) - Northern Ireland - Implement Windsor Framework - Repeal the [Legacy Act](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68930141) - Passed in 2023; came into action May 2024 - Denies justice to families and victims of the Troubles - Immunity clause which stops civil litigation and inquests into deaths which occurred during the Troubles - Applies to former members of security forces and ex-paramilitaries - 3,500 killings during the troubles; 1,000 unsolved - Foreign policy - No return to the single market - Ukraine - Seizure and repurposing of frozen Russian state assets - Back calls for Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression - Palestine - Immediate ceasefire, release of hostages, increase of aid into Gaza - Palestinian statehood as an inalienable right - "We are committed to recognising a Palestinian state as a contribution to a renewed peace process which results in a two-state solution with a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state" - Fiscal plan - Not all additional revenue allocated to potential spending - Public services ![[Pasted image 20240622233108.png]] - Green spending ![[Pasted image 20240622233215.png]] - Waste & efficiencies ![[Pasted image 20240622233329.png]] - Tax and spend - £8bn of revenue raising measures - Changing [non-dom](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32216346) (a UK resident whose permanent home is outside the UK for tax purposes) tax status for wealthy people - Tory policy: Remove non-dom status with two-year transition period - From 2025, people who move to the UK will not have to pay tax on money they earn overseas for the first four years - Two year transition period for existing non-dom - Expected to raise £2.7bn a year by 2028/29 - Labour difference - Remove 50% discount in the first year of new rules; includes foreign assets held in a trust within the UK inheritance tax framework - Changes would raise £2.6bn over the next parliament (520m / year) - Clamping on tax avoidance, applying VAT to private schools, introducing windfall tax on big energy - £5bn spending on green investment, NHS, mental health staff, expert teachers, breakfast clubs at primary schools - £4bn for green energy, national wealth fund and insulation plan - £2.5bn unspent from expected revenue - Private school fees - 20% VAT added to private school fees - Used to pay 6,500 extra teachers in England's state schools - £1.6bn raised per year (not clear how the money will be used) - Building 300,000 homes a year - Level of housebuilding not seen since the 1960s - [1969](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyxx1lq50nlo) - when new council housing contributed to 45% of total new houses - Plan to reform economics and bureaucracy of housebuilding - [Kate Barker](https://archive.ph/240Yb#selection-1701.23-1701.102) (Blair's housing "guru" from 2004 warns this is a "Herculean task") - Ban on petrol and diesel car sales - Current government wants to extent deadline to 2035 - Labour plan to stop by 2030 - Demand for electric models flat-lined last year - No Labour target for installation of charge points - New Border and Security Command - Immediately scrap Rwanda scheme - Divert £75m from Rwanda scheme to new Border and Security Command - Counter terrorism-like powers to monitor and restrict activities of smuggling suspects - £24bn for green initiatives - £1.7bn a year for Great British Energy company (investments to accelerate roll-out of renewables and nuclear) - Aim to create 650,000 jobs by 2030 - £1.1bn to help improve energy efficiency of UK homes - An 'absolute' commitment to nuclear and NATO - No equivocation on nuclear weapons - Little detail on how to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence - 40,000 more on NHS appointments and operations - Non-dom crackdown to pay for 40,000 new appointments, scans and operations per week in England - Increase of less than 2% but [could be just enough](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyxx1lq50nlo) to get waiting times back on track - Promise to increase the budget above inflation, however, Tories have been doing this anyway - 4% above inflation per year seems to only be enough to maintain the status quo - [Nuffield Trust](https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/nuffield-trust-response-to-labour-party-manifesto) think tank criticises a "stunning lack of detail" - Plan to reduce backlog of **rape** cases - Plan to rearrange existing resources to dedicate space for rape cases in crown courts - Problem: criminal barristers are more likely to walk away from sexual offence work because of pay, hours and stress (suggestion that funding would be needed) - Tickets touts - Restrict ticket resales and the prices they can be resold at - Defence - [2.5% defence budget](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgglmwwlggo) but 'only when economic circumstances allow' - Left wing purge - Stopping Labour MPs from showing up in favour of strikes - Suspension of Rebecca Long Bailey #### Conservatives - Manifesto - Return of Help to Buy - 1.6 million homes in 5 years - Previous targets of 300,000 per year - [Missed](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/annex-conservative-manifesto-half-time-analysis.pdf) in 2020/21 (216,489) 11% fall from previous year - [2021/22](https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/more-than-212000-new-homes-built-last-year-annual-housing-supply-figures-show/5126619.article#:~:text=Annual%20housing%20supply%20figures%20published,300%2C000%20new%20homes%20per%20year.) (211,670) - [2022/23](https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/more-than-212000-new-homes-built-last-year-annual-housing-supply-figures-show/5126619.article#:~:text=Annual%20housing%20supply%20figures%20published,300%2C000%20new%20homes%20per%20year.) (212,570) - Help to Buy: Equity loan of up to 20% towards cost of new home for first time buyers - [Criticised for pushing](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgglmwwlggo) up housing prices and benefitting developers, not buyers - Commitment to eventually ban no-fault evictions - Proposed in 2019 but still delayed - Abolition of NI contributions for the self-employed - 4 million self-employed people in the UK - 6% on profits between £12,570-50,270 - 2% above £50,270 - Cost of £2.6bn per year - Additional £5bn a year for further 2p reduction in NI for employees (4p already cut in 2024) - Paid for by £6bn a year crackdown on tax avoidance and £12bn a year cut on welfare - [Total of £17bn in tax cuts](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/conservative-manifesto-initial-response) - £12bn welfare savings from 2015 manifesto were delivered, albeit 2 years late - No response to doubling of new claims for disability benefits compared with 2019 - Cutting of "civil service numbers, reducing spending on management consultants and quango efficiencies" insufficient to make the saving in time - No indication on which unprotected public services will be cut - Savings from cutting civil service numbers already earmarked for additional defence spending - [Tougher sentences and new prisons](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgglmwwlggo) - Prisons expected to be at full capacity within weeks - Prisoners already being released early to make space - 2021 Tory White Paper promised 20,000 new prison spaces by the mid 2020s - the biggest in over a century - Only 6,000 spaces created so far - Manifesto promises 4 new prisons by 2030 - Pledge to increase number of community police officers by 8,000 - Nearly 1/3 of officers intended to resign because of low pay and morale - Scandals such as racist WhatsApp groups and the murder of Sarah Everard have impacted recruitment and retention - Regular flights to Rwanda - Regular rhythm of flights every month, starting this July - Current deal only seems to cover 300 migrants - Would cost the UK £1.8m per transferred individual (£541m over 5 years) - Increased defence spending - Conservative commitment to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence (NATO target is 2%) - Education - Building on current powers which allow the closure of courses with high drop-out rates or which leave graduates no better off - Estimated to affect no more than 3% of students - Target of 100,000 extra apprenticeships per year - Can only happen if employers want to create them - Ban of mobile phones during the school day - Net Zero without new green charges - Net zero by 2050 without "unaffordable eco-zealotry" - Climate Change Committee warned that the UK is not on track to meet its target: - Cut emissions by 68% by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels) - Cuts to welfare and civil service numbers - Number not working due to long-term sickness is at a high of 2.8 million - Civil service headcount cut to bolster defence (£3.9bn) - Whitehall numbers swelled due to pandemic and post-Brexit trade negotiations - Plan to save £550m by cutting 5,500 NHS managers - 3 strike warning for anti-social tenants - Seems to only apply to social housing landlords (?) - Promised end to rough sleeping (also made in 2019 manifesto) - Between 2019-23, numbers in England fell by 9% - New dentists tied to NHS - New cap on care costs introduced next year - 40 new hospital pledge from 2019 is behind schedule - [National Audit Office](https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/progress-with-the-new-hospital-programme/) concludes that 2030 target will not be met - Promise of above-inflation rates isn't new (NHS budget almost always rises in real terms) - Cap on social care costs - £86,000 cap in England for 2025, but not clear how it will be funded - 1p increase to NI was introduced to pay for it, but then scrapped - Legal limit to migration - Fixed annual number of work and family visas which would fall every year - Claim that it would protect public services (contested) - Migration Advisory Committee (2018) called for high-skilled migrant cap to be scrapped - [More than half](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ba26c1de5274a54d5c39be2/Final_EEA_report.PDF) of UK migrant employees (who have left fulltime education) are 'high skilled' (but 41% for EEA new member states), p.77 - [Recommendation](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ba26c1de5274a54d5c39be2/Final_EEA_report.PDF) that the cap on Tier 2 migrants is abolished, p.127 #### Reform UK ##### Manifesto - Immigration - Freeze on non-essential migration to boost wages - Deportation of illegal migrants (no asylum process?) - <span style="color:#f894ff">Q: Where would they be returned to? Rwanda was hardly a success </span> - Stop the Boats (leave European Convention on Human Rights) - Pick up illegal migrants in boats and take them back to France - <span style="color:#f894ff">Q: How would they convince France to accept that?</span> - Requirement of 5 years residency and employment to claim benefits in the UK - NI rate 20% for foreign workers (13.8% for British citizens) - Exemption for essential foreign health and care workers & businesses who employ 5 staff members and under - NHS - £17bn in extra funding per year - [Much higher](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqll1edxgw4o) than LD (£5.8bn), Lab (£2bn) and Con (£1bn) - Free NHS at the point of use but also no waiting lists - Cut back office waste - Tax breaks for doctors and nurses (0 basic rate tax for 3 years) - 20% tax relief on private healthcare and insurance - Nuffield Trust warns this takes money away from the public and towards private; could also encourage NHS staff to move to the private sector - NHS patients get a voucher for private treatment if they can't see a GP within 3 days (3 weeks for a consultant, 9 weeks for an operation) - "Services will always be free at the point of use" (?!?!?) - Charge people who fail to attend appointments without notice - Tax incentives for new pharmacies and those who employ more staff to assist with A&E - Public Inquiry on excess deaths and vaccine harms - Excess deaths nearly as high as during the pandemic - Tax cuts - Income tax threshold lifted to £20k - 7 million people out of income tax - Abolish VAT tourist tax - Claim that stopping the VAT refund scheme deterred 2m tourists and cost over £10bn - Economy - Bank of England stops paying interest to commercial banks on QE reserves - saves £35 billion (?!) - Cut waste, bureaucracy, improve efficiency, negotiate better value procurement - saves £50 billion - Cut foreign aid by 50% - saves £6 billion - Collect more unpaid tax by "improved HMRC competence" - Business - Minimum profit threshold raised to £100k for corporation tax (up from £50k) - Currently, companies with £50k profit or less only pay the 'small profits rate' of 19% - Reduce corporation tax from 25% to 20% then to 15% - Lift VAT Threshold to £150,000 - From £90,000 - Abolish IR35 rules for sole traders - Slash thousands of 'red tape' laws, including employment laws - No specificity, other than make it easier to hire and fire - Energy - Scrapping Net Zero - Scrap £10bn of renewable energy subsidies - Fast track licences of North Sea gas and oil - Grant shale gas licences on test sites for 2 years - [BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqll1edxgw4o): Offshore wind cheaper than gas in the long term and less vulnerable to shocks - Law and Order - 40,000 new front-line officers over 5 years - Increase stop and search substantially - Drug dealing and trafficking -> mandatory life imprisonment - New offence of "Substantial Possession of Drugs" meeting heavy fines - Scrap all DE&I roles and regulations to stop two-tier policing - Mandatory life sentences for second violent or serious offences - Increase criminal justice budget from £10bn to £12bn - Build 10,000 new detention places - Deport offenders holding dual citizenship (grooming gangs heading :x) - Reopen High Intensity Training Camps for young offenders - Education - Any teaching of British or European imperialism or slavery must be paired with teaching of a non-European occurrence of the same - Inform parents of under 16s about their life decisions - No gender questioning, social transition or pronoun swapping - No VAT on private education fees - <span style="color:#ffc000">No mention of teacher shortages? </span> - Benefits - Withdraw benefits after 4 months if a job isn't accepted after 2 offers - Brexit - UK government signed up to EU Horizon programme - "Means we send money to the European Defence Fund and part of the EU's mobile military project" - Armed forces "at risk" of being sucked into an EU Command and Control Force - Defence - Increase Defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by year 3, then 3% within 6 years - Recruit 30,000 to join the army full-time - [Current size](https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-02-19/debates/2EDD0FA6-89CE-48F6-8760-B6B27888E509/ArmySize#:~:text=Volume%20745%3A%20debated%20on%20Monday%2019%20February%202024&text=The%20latest%20figure%20for%20the,regular%20and%2030%2C000%20reserve%20personnel.) is 73,520 - [Full size of armed forces](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7930/) in 2023: 152,400 - Up from 144,430 in 2019 (increase of 8,000 in 5 years) - Housing - Fast track planning and tax incentives - Scrap section 24 for Landlords - Abolish Renters' (Reform) Bill - Incentivise use of new construction technology - Raising stamp duty threshold from £250,000 to £750,000 - No ban on no-fault evictions (unlike Lab and Con) - Children and families - 25% transferable marriage tax allowance - No tax on the first £25,000 of income from either spouse - Mandate single-sex spaces - Transport and Utilities Infrastructure - Scrap HS2, save £25bn - Only one section left between London and West Midlands, currently in peak construction phase - £27bn already spent, total cost expected to be £54bn - Savings don't account for other costs: - Pay-offs to contractors - Repurposing tunnels, bridges and other infrastructure already built - [Scrapping](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqll1edxgw4o) the first section would mean paying out £11bn in "remediation costs" - Scrap 20 MPH zones unless 'where safety is critical' - Model to bring 50% of each utility into public ownership; other 50% owned by UK pension funds - Agriculture - Increase farming budget to £3bn - Up from [£2.4bn](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/new-approaches-to-farm-funding-in-england/#:~:text=How%20much%20is%20spent%20to,was%20around%20%C2%A32.33%20billion.) - Fishing and Coastal communities - Foreign fishing vessels must pay for a licence for access to the UK's EEC (Exclusive Economic Zone) - Ban Dutch vessels from electric pulse fishing in Britain's EEZ - Constitutional reform - Replace House of Lords with a smaller, more democratic second chamber - Stop postal voting except for the elderly, disabled or those who can't leave their homes - PR voting for the House of Commons - Scrap BBC licence fee - European Convention on Human Rights - UK co-founded and provides a judge and staff - Only two nations to quit: Russia and Belarus - Strasbourg has not ultimately stood in the way of sending UK suspects to other countries, provided they won't be tortured - [First Rwanda flight](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqll1edxgw4o) stopped by the court (temporarily) - Only stopped for British judges to consider the policy and rule whether the country was safe - [UK Supreme court](https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/what-are-the-rwanda-treaty-and-the-safety-of-rwanda-asylum-and-immigration-bill/#:~:text=On%2015%20November%202023%2C%20the,safe%20country%20to%20do%20so.) ultimately found that Rwanda was not a safe country to do so, and ruled the policy unlawful - Only 127 cases in Strasbourg went against the government - 68,500 cases as of last year (0.2% concerning the UK) #### Lib Dem #### SNP - Manifesto - Key pledges - Independence - Reverse cuts - Rejoin the single market - £16bn a year extra for NHS England (£1.6bn for Scotland) - Immediate ceasefire in Gaza - Release hostages - End arms sales to Israel - Call on the UK to immediately recognise Palestine - Scrap 2 child benefit cap - Devolution of new borrowing powers for just transition - Essentials guarantee - Ensure that everyone can afford basic necessities like food and utilities - Workers' rights - Scrap 0-hour contracts - Ban fire and rehire - Repeal minimum service - Scrap Rwanda - Decriminalise drugs - Scrap trident - Defend free university tuition in Scotland - Ending Austerity - "Unless they change their spending plans, the Institute for Fiscal Studies is clear there will be a staggering £18bn of cuts to public services" - [NOTE](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/labour-party-manifesto-initial-response#:~:text=%E2%80%9CLabour's%20manifesto%20did%20promise%20some,largely%20in%20health%20and%20education.): This a slight mischaracterisation. The IFS said cuts were one potential outcome, but also mentioned that borrowing or raising taxes were also possible: "Yes, growth could surprise on the upside – and if it does, then the fiscal arithmetic would be easier. But if it doesn’t – and it hasn’t tended to in recent years – then either we will get those cuts, or the fiscal targets will be fudged, or taxes will rise." - SNP record of using progressive income tax to raise an extra £1.5bn - Devolution of windfall tax for companies operating in Scotland - Reform to VAT - Suncream subject to VAT, but caviar is not (lol) - Devolution powers to end VAT exemption for private schools (charitable relief already gone) - Rebalancing of VAT to push for net zero (removal of VAT from on-street electric vehicle charging) - Rejoin EU - Free movement - Smoother trade across countries - Access to EU workers - Erasmus+ schemes - Creative Europe scheme - Cost of living crisis - Achievements - Free prescriptions and eye tests - Expanded free childcare - Extended school meal provision - Frozen council tax - Free bus travel for over 60s and under 22s - Removed peak fares from railways - Demands - Essentials guarantee - Statutory social tariff for energy, broadband and mobile charges for all who need one - Annual uplift of Local Housing Allowance - Reintroduce simplified Help to Buy ISA scheme - NHS - Achievements - Staffing at a record high - More doctors and nurses per head than south of the border - Further investing £300m - Demands - "Keep the NHS in Public Hands Bill" - Boost NHS spending by a minimum of £10bn a year - Lab plan is only £2bn; Cons £1bn, LD ~6bn, Reform £17bn - Increase NHS England staff pay with increased investment of at least £6bn - Greener economy - Demands - Invest at least £28bn per year in the green economy - Support Acorn carbon capture - Just transition for the North East - £500 million already pledged for North-East Transition Fund - call for the UK to at least match - Just transition for the Grangemouth complex - Extend refining for as long as possible whilst transition is made - Rule out new nuclear power plants in Scotland - Ban new coal licences (same as Labour) - Establish Four Nations Climate Response Group - Transport - Achievements - Scrapping of bridge tolls - Over £11bn invested in rail infrastructure - Railway taken into public hands and peak fares removed - Completed Queensferry crossing on time and under budget - Demands - Devolve railways fully - Ban import and sail of new non zero-emission buses by 2025 - New Low Income EV Car Leasing Fund backed by min. £500m (French example) - Misc - Replace FPTP with STV - Voting rights for 16-17 year olds - Scrap voter ID & introduce automatic voter registration - Scrap trident - Scottish Connections Framework for Scotland's diaspora #### Greens - Manifesto - Housing - £29bn over 5 years to insulate homes to EPC B standard - £4bn to insulate other buildings to a high standard - £9bn over 5 years for low-carbon heating systems (heat pumps) for homes and other buildings - 150,000 new social homes each year - <span style="color:#f894ff">Ambitious compared to 30,000 built by housing associations and 3,000 by English councils last year </span> - Renters - Rent control - End no-fault evictions - Tenants right to demand energy efficiency improvements - NHS - Boost to pay of NHS staff (help staff retention) - £8bn rise in the first year - Mental health therapy available within 28 days - Trained and paid counsellor in every school and 6th form college - Euthanasia legalised - End new cases of HIV by 2030 - Prevention pill access and testing programmes - Economy - Green economic transformation - £40bn per year to shift to a green economy - Carbon tax - Initial rate of £120 per tonne - Maximum of £500 per tonne - Expected to raise £80bn over 10 years - Railways, water companies and big 5 retail energy companies into public ownership - £12.4bn investment in skills and training for green economy - Share of community ownership in local sustainable energy (e.g. wind farms) - Tax - Wealth tax - 1% annually on assets above £10 million - 2% on assets above £1bn - Reform Capital Gains to align with income tax (?) - Remove Upper Earnings Limit for National Insurance - Could raise additional £50-70bn per year after 5 years - Environment - Wind to produce 70% of UK electricity by 2030 - [Scotland in 2020](https://fullfact.org/environment/scotland-renewable-energy/) - 56% of electricity consumed came from renewable sources - 80GW of offshore wind, 53GW of onshore wind, 100GW of solar by 2035 - Phase out of nuclear energy - "Unmanageable quantities of radioactive waste and are inextricably linked with the production of nuclear weapons" - Introduce "Rights of Nature Act" and new "Clean Air (Human Rights) Act" - Workers' rights - Repeal of anti-union legislation - Maximum 10:1 pay ratio for all private and public sector organisations - [Currently](https://highpaycentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Copy-of-CEO-pay-report-2023-1-1.pdf) 59:1 for private companies (2022) - Minimum wage increase to £15 (no mater age) - Offset cost by reducing NI payments of businesses - Four day working week - Welfare - Increase Universal Credit and legacy benefits by £40 per week - Abolish the two-child benefit cap - End Bedroom Tax - Introduce UBI (in the long term) - Increase disability benefits by 5% - Transport - Increase subsidies for rail and bus travel to £10bn over 5 years - Free bus travel for under-18s - £19bn over 5 years for public transport, cycleways and new footpaths - Nationalisation of railways ([AND](https://greenparty.org.uk/app/uploads/2024/06/Green-Party-2024-General-Election-Manifesto-Long-version-with-cover.pdf) "rolling stock which is currently owned by leasing companies needs replacement") - Frequent-flyer levy - Ban domestic flights that would take less than 3 hours by train - Halt expansion of new airport capacity - Education - £8bn funding increase for schools (£2bn for pay rise for teachers) - End of tuition fees - Human rights - Replace FPTP with PR - Replace Lords with elected chamber - Voting rights for 16 year olds - £2.5bn investment for court systems - Foreign policy - Support Ukraine - Re-join EU - Israel & Palestine - Immediate bilateral ceasefire - End arms sales to Israel - Release of hostages - Urgent effort to end occupation of Palestinian land - Reinstate funding for UNRWA - Support South Africa's submission to the ICJ - Dismantle nuclear weapons (still support NATO) - Increase international aid to 1% of GNI - Increase climate finance for the Global South to 1.5% of GNI by 2033 ## Top issues for voters 1. Economy (52%) 2. Health (49%) 3. Immigration (40%) 4. Housing (23%) 5. Environment (21%) 6. Crime (18%) 7. Tax (11%)