# [The power of quantum computers grows at a double exponential rate called Nevin's Law and Google will have an error-corrected million-qubit quantum computer by the end of the decade](https://twitter.com/tsarnick/status/1814414215740117434)
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#### [[👤Hartmut Neven]]:
To unlock more applications, we need to build a large error-corrected quantum computer.
Here is our plan to build a computer with a million physical qubits.
It has six milestones, and we have already reached the first two.
Before 2019, no one had shown beyond classical computation on a quantum computer.
We were the first to do it.
Our chip did a computation that the fastest supercomputer at that time would have taken 10,000 years to do.
Recently, we repeated this experiment, and now Frontier, today's top supercomputer, would need one billion years to do it.
This huge growth in computing power supports Nevin's law, which says quantum computers' power will grow at a double exponential rate.
In 2023, we reached a second milestone.
We showed that quantum error correction is a scalable technology.
Error correction might seem boring, but it is very important.
Today, our two-qubit operations have an error rate of one in a thousand.
That means the quantum computer crashes every thousand steps or so.
To improve this, we combine many physical qubits into a logical qubit to reduce the error rate to one in a billion or even less.
We are about halfway through our plan and are optimistic that we will finish it before the end of this decade.
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- [[in the past 85 years, computing power has increased by 75 quadrillion times for the same cost]]
- [[2027 AI models will cost up to $100 billion to train and will be "better than most humans at most things"]]
- [[in the 2030s we will have nanobots in our brains, expanding our intelligence a million-fold by 2045, enhancing human flourishing and leading to the Singularity]]
- [[he hates the AI hype and we should wait and see what happens in the next 10 years before we start worrying about the imminent disappearance of jobs]]
- [[The price-performance of NVIDIA GPUs is improving in each generation at a greater rate than Moore's Law]]
- [[It is plausible that we are living at a special moment in history, with current developments in technology shaping the future trajectory of civilization for millions of years to come]]
- [[I left DeepMind because I believe AGI is only 3 years away and my new company Reflection AI can move faster on the accelerated timeline we are on]]
#🤖Hartmut_Neven