# [[đź“šThinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke]]
- [[👤Annie Duke]]>
- [[đź“šThinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke]]=
- [[đź“šThinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#Definition - What is the book about]]
- [[đź“šThinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#Structure - What is the structure of the book]]
- [[đź“šThinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#Purpose - Why this book is helpful or inspiring]]
- [[đź“šThinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#Collections]]
- [[đź“šThinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#Others]]
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## Definition - What is the book about
> 🔝 [[📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke]]
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## Structure - What is the structure of the book
> 🔝 [[📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke]]
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## Purpose - Why this book is helpful or inspiring
### ![[🌠Mapping the Unknown Together - The Power of Admitting Uncertainty in Conversations]]
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### ![[🌠Small Tweaks, Big Impact - The Ripple Effect of Incremental Improvements]]
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> 🔝 [[📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke]]
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## Collections
### [a little bit better is all we need to transform our lives](brain://api.thebrain.com/58P26g3j5Eu09n5S8ndaeg/xkfGAgX7mEKB9iiXvUHi1Q/ALittleBitBetterIsAllWeNeedToTransformOurLives)
- To be sure, thinking in bets is not a miracle cure. Thinking in bets won’t make self-serving bias disappear or motivated reasoning vanish into thin air. But it will make those things better. And a little bit better is all we need to transform our lives. If we field just a few extra outcomes more accurately, if we catch just a few extra learning opportunities, it will make a huge difference in what we learn, when we learn, and how much we learn.Poker’s compressed version of real-world decision-making showed me how being a little better at decision-making could make a big difference. A poker game can consist of a few hundred hands. Every hand can require up to twenty decisions. If, over the course of a game, there were a hundred outcomes that provided learning opportunities and we caught ten of them, we would still be missing 90% of our chances to learn. We wouldn’t have transcended the way our brains function and built ourselves a different brain, but we don’t need to. If our opponents are people like Nick the Greek, they are missing almost every learning opportunity. We’re obviously going to do better than they do just catching 10%. If another of our opponents is someone just like us, but who isn’t working to transform their outcome-processing routines, maybe they (this prior version ofourselves) will pick up five opportunities. Again, we are missing 90%, and we are still going to clean up on an opponent who is trying to learn but doesn’t know how.*The benefits of recognizing just a few extra learning opportunities compound over time. The cumulative effect of being a little better at decision-making, like compounding interest, can have huge effects in the long run on everything that we do. When we catch that extra occasional learning opportunity, it puts us in a better position for future opportunities of the same type. Any improvement in our decision quality puts us in a better position in the future. Think of it like a ship sailing from New York to London. If the ship’s navigator introduces a one-degree navigation error, it would start off as barely noticeable. Unchecked, however, the ship would veer farther and farther off course and would miss London by miles, as that one-degree miscalculation compounds mile over mile. Thinking in bets corrects your course. And even a small correction will get you more safely to your destination. [Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke](x-devonthink-item://709834FC-8D09-48C0-B11C-01E050BD22E8?page=101&start=1026&length=1308&search=To%20be%20sure,%20thinking%20in%20bets%20is%20not%20a%20miracle%20cure.%20Thinking%20in%20bets%20won%E2%80%99t%20make%20self-serving%20bias%20disappear%20or%20motivated%20reasoning%20vanish%20into%20thin%20air.%20But%20it%20will%20make%20those%20things%20better.%20And%20a%20little%20bit%20better%20is%20all%20we%20need%20to%20transform%20our%20lives.%20If)
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### [embracing uncertainty to foster open dialogue and enhance truthseeking](brain://api.thebrain.com/58P26g3j5Eu09n5S8ndaeg/HNQPmrYZr0mGxwMdwwtMKA/EmbracingUncertaintyToFosterOpenDialogueAndEnhanceTruthseeking)
- First, express uncertainty. Uncertainty not only improves truthseeking within groups but also invites everyone around us to share helpful information and dissenting opinions. Fear of being wrong (or of having to suggest someone else is wrong) countervails the social contract of confirmation, often causing people to withhold valuable insights and opinions from us. If we start by making clearour own uncertainty, our audience is more likely to understand that any discussion that follows will not involve right versus wrong, maximizing our truthseeking exchanges with those outside our chartered group. [Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke](x-devonthink-item://709834FC-8D09-48C0-B11C-01E050BD22E8?page=145&start=1636&length=393&search=First,%20express%20uncertainty.%20Uncertainty%20not%20only%20improves%20truthseeking%20within%20groups%20but%20also%20invites%20everyone%20around%20us%20to%20share%20helpful%20information%20and%20dissenting%20opinions.%20Fear%20of%20being%20wrong%20(or%20of%20having%20to%20suggest%20someone%20else%20is%20wrong)%20countervails%20)
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> 🔝 [[📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke]]
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## Others
> 🔝 [[📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke#📚Thinking in Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke]]
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