Fragility amplifiers are factors or mechanisms that **exacerbate or amplify the vulnerability and instability in systems, societies, or environments**.^[Suleyman, 2023] These amplifiers can increase the likelihood of negative outcomes or crises by making systems more susceptible to shocks or stresses. This leads to [[Containment of emerging technologies requires strong nation-states and cohesive societies at a time when they are fragile and divided|more fragile nation-states]] that are less capable of withstanding disturbances or adapting to changes. The **underlying cause** is the [[The "Coming Wave" is an emerging cluster of technologies centered on AI and synthetic biology|coming wave of new and powerful technologies]]. **Examples** of fragility amplifiers include:^[Suleyman, 2023] - **New forms of attack**: Technologies such as lethal autonomous weapons (AWS) and AI-powered cyber weapons, which are becoming cheaper and more accessible, pose significant threats. They lower the barriers to engaging in violence, diffuse power more widely, empower malign actors, favor offensive over defensive strategies, and blur the lines of accountability, thereby undermining deterrence and increasing geopolitical instability. - **Disinformation and misinformation**:^[**Misinformation** is simply false or inaccurate information, whereas **disinformation** is malicious and intentionally false or misleading information.] The proliferation of synthetic media, including deepfakes and sophisticated phishing attacks, means anyone can generate stories of seemingly real-world events. As it becomes increasingly difficult to discern truth from falsehood, the integrity of the information ecosystem is undermined, leading to an erosion of knowledge, trust in institutions, democratic discourse, and social cohesion. Meanwhile, malicious actors can manipulate perceptions and destabilize societies with impunity. - **Lab leaks**: Failure to contain dangerous pathogens can and does occur inadvertently, without malicious intent. Such accidents become more likely with the increased power and proliferation of synthetic biology. - **Labor market disruptions**: Automation of work might create unemployment on an unprecedented scale, potentially leading to widespread unemployment and social unrest. While new jobs may emerge, the transition could be difficult and prolonged for many, exacerbating economic inequalities and societal tensions. Human labor has many constraints (identity, location, skills and knowledge, etc.) and is slow to retrain and redeploy. New jobs might not arrive in time or sufficient numbers for millions of unemployed humans. Fragility amplifiers thus call for a nuanced understanding and proactive management to mitigate their impacts. This requires robust regulatory frameworks, international cooperation, and the fostering of resilient communities capable of adapting to new realities. --- Topics: - [[The AI Revolution and the Tapestry of Tomorrow (Index)]] Related notes: - [[Containment of emerging technologies requires strong nation-states and cohesive societies at a time when they are fragile and divided]] - [[Containment of advances in AI is likely not possible]]