Uncertainty maps are a form of [[Impact Analysis]] that look at the impact of an event vs. the uncertainty of the event to happen. ## Uncertainty In terms of the certainty of the event to happen, you can look at [[Unknowns]]. Alternatively use a simplified model like this: * **Low**: Will likely occur * **Moderate**: Likely to occur * **High**: May never occur ## Impact Impact is the effect of the event on an individual or an organization. For a company this might be the impact on the business: * **Low**: Won't change much * **Moderate**: Could alter core business, likely changes secondary business * **Critical**: Will change core business For individuals this might be the impact on personal health or well-being. ## Uncertainty-impact matrix You can then create a simple matrix: -- | Low uncertainty | Moderate uncertainty | High uncertainty ------------ | ------------ | ------------ | ------------ **Moderate impact** | Will change business, will occur | Could change business and could likely occur | May never occur .. but if it does, it disrupts business **Moderate impact** | Could alter business, will occur | Could alter business and could likely occur | May never occur but alters business if occurs **Critical impact** | Won't change much, will occur | Won't change much and could likely occur | Won't change much and likely will never occur This can also be used within a [[Multi Horizon Framework]].