A collection of my future predictions to keep track and analyze my assumptions and reasoning. This is not about claiming to be right or able to see the future, but to train the muscle of [[Strategic Foresight]] and [[Futures Assessment]]. ## Predictions made in 2026 Prediction: We will have a profession to analyse past events based on digital I formation and collate everything into a "truth" of some kind. This is effectively data journalism, but elevated into a necessary social and maybe even commercial entity. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bilawalsidhu_gods-eye-view-24-hour-replay-of-operation-ugcPost-7433961484696711168-1qHf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAAMotREBZRA09ZrDMZncjnJK6mC223CITFo ## Predictions made in 2024 **Prediction: A fashion brand will go "Full AI hallucination" and produce clothes with obvious errors. Like this three-stringed hoodie.** Assumption: This just looks cool. And also, it has weird marketing applications, like calling the fashion line: "Plausible deniability - for the selfies you can claim you never took" or something. Link: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7208382470986051584/, 17.06.2024 --- **Prediction: Within the next 24 months, a generative AI platform will allow content creators a way to feed their model to then reimburse them whenever there content was used to create an output.** Assumption: The entire generative AI process can be defined as such: The platform consumes content by (Person A) to commercially transform it based on input by (Person B). If the platform doesn't have input by (Person) A), they cannot offer services to (Person B). That also means the better and more content by (Person A), the better the service will be, so there is an interest for the platform to incentive (Person A). The logical step is to offer parts of the platform revenue to (Person A). Also to make it attractive to all other content creators to contribute, spawning a creator ecosystem. See also: YouTube. This might eventually look very different than "write a text" or "create an image" as we optimize into artificially created optimized training assets "for the algorithm", but again, see YouTube. The creator ecosystem will themselves optimize their training data to get the best output, which equals the most revenue share. Again, that's worth paying for as the platform. The first AI platform to figure this out seamlessly will be the winner, offering a service somewhere between a stock content platform (from Person B's perspective), YouTube (catering culturally to Person A) and Spotify (catering commercially to Person A). Even if training models with copyrighted content will turn out to be fair-use, this business model will emerge as the winner. Link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dirksonguer_fun-prediction-time-within-the-next-24-months-activity-7178316591053348864-5ZS3, 26.03.2024 --- **Prediction: Capturing reactions in space will be a thing. To the point where there will be channels dedicated to creating "Bench neighbors".** Assumption: The Apple Vision Pro is a great content consumption device, in fact I'd argue it's the best TV that many people will own. That said, it's a lonely TV since it's by definition single user. However, there is also the trend of reaction videos: People will "watch movies" by watching others react to it. These are highly popular YouTube channels. If we put both together, we get a movie player app on a headset that will also capture the viewers reaction: Comments, facial expressions, gestures and movement. These reactions can be shared with others, either in real-time, or saved recordings, to let others experience the movies "next to the wearer". Date: 08.03.2024 --- **Prediction: There are schisms forming between Apples brand values and its behavior that will divide Apple staff, leading to attrition of talent.** Signal: Apple's "Mother Nature" ad is turning their sustainability core value into a skit: [2030 Status | Mother Nature | Apple](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNv9PRDIhes) Signal: The behavior around compliance with EU app store guidelines and web apps is essentially malicious compliance: [Apple’s decision to drop iPhone web apps comes under scrutiny in the EU - The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/26/24083511/apple-eu-investigation-web-app-support) and [Epic’s Tim Sweeney calls Apple App Store changes ‘hot garbage’ - The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/25/24050696/epic-games-tim-sweeney-apple-app-store-response) Assumption: Apple is breaking some of its core values in the name of marketing and business. In the case of the "Mother Nature" ad , it is turning one of their core values (sustainability) into a simple marketing skit. It's cringeworthy and a stark contrast to the previous stance: Do the thing, mention the thing as a product feature, move on. This skit takes sustainability away from the individual Apple employees, into the abstract. Worse, Apple now behaves hostile towards users and developers. While they comply with new EU regulations around the app store and web apps, they create worse experiences for users and are angering developers. While Apple has done this before many times, none of this is done in the usual elegant way. It's obviously a bad faith effort. This might not sit well with people within Apple. Date: 28.02.2024 --- **Prediction: LLM- / Diffusion-based AI solutions are not able to produce brand-safe content. Assumption: The current version of LLMs / diffusion-based models are based on statistical approaches that have no internal model of reality and produce largely non-deterministic results. As a result they are prone to hallucinate and almost impossible to test. Brands are concerned with two issues here: These hallucinations mean that generated products can not guaranteed to be correct. They might be wrong, missing features, or show features that don't exist. When it comes to brands, the first rule is "Don't fxxk with the product." This does not only carry brand reputation issues, but also legal ones if a brand falsely advertises a product. The second issue is that all brands have brand values and rules around the context in which products can be shown. For example car brands don't like their cars shown damaged, speeding, driven by drunk drivers etc. These rules are carefully crafted not only to represent the product in the best possible way, but also avoid legal implications. In case of brand usage, the tendency to hallucinate means that while brand values can be added to the model, it will not produce reliable results in accordance with these values. Both violations are situations where CMOs lose their job. The way to go about this is to use reinforcement. This is using either rule-based authoritative models, which are expensive to produce and can still fail. Or through reinforced learning aka "people moderating it," which requires actual moderation staff. There is no way to scale this approach. So, for in-house or agency-produced campaign content: Yes. For user-generated campaigns: No, or rather: Within the limits of scalability. Limiting inappropriate responses reduces the LLM to the point where it performs worse than alternative ML or human-based approaches. Signal: "*Comments by a Google Vice President seemed to capture the “whole situation in a nutshell: “I can’t promise that Gemini won’t occasionally generate embarrassing, inaccurate or offensive results—but I can promise that we will continue to take action whenever we identify an issue.” And what about the thousands of cases that never make the news?*" [The Deeper Problem With Google’s Racially Diverse Nazis - The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/02/google-gemini-diverse-nazis/677575/) Signal: [Airline ordered to pay refund - after its AI chatbot offered a grieving passenger a discount but airline staff then refused it: 'Turns out SkyNet is more compassionate' (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/airline-ordered-to-pay-refund-after-its-ai-chatbot-offered-a-grieving-passenger-a-discount-but-airline-staff-then-refused-it-turns-out-skynet-is-more-compassionate/ar-BB1ixjCw) Signal: [Tay (chatbot) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay_(chatbot)) Date: 22.02.2024 --- **Prediction: The OpenAI evaluation, while having great products, is detached from actual value.** Assumption: OpenAI is kinda like Magic Leap in that they both have amazing talent, but initially massively overhyped what they were doing. Related to Sora, I'm reading about "physical models of reality" and "world building" and it very much reminds me of "hacking the GPU of your brain" - it's just detached from what this thing is and likely will ever be able to do. And that's a shame. In both cases. The Magic Leap One actually had interesting aspects, but it failed because expectations were utterly detached from what the thing actually was. Similarly, Sora and other OpenAI products are truly amazing for what they are. But the way we (and also OpenAI) talk about them is just not anywhere close to their real capabilities and potential. This divergence of product perception and reality is not healthy for OpenAI Link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dirksonguer_todays-provocation-i-think-openai-is-kinda-activity-7164279327965040640-nzsO --- **Prediction: The [Rabbit R1](https://www.rabbit.tech/) is literally a modern [Nabaztag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabaztag) [2].** Assumption: The R1 will live about as long. It seems to make sense, but on closer inspection is just too limited to make any sense. But as the Rabbit servers & services will go away, it might be kept alive by an open source community of tinkerers. Link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dirksonguer_rabbit-home-activity-7152997457189113857-i4fD --- ## Predictions made in 2022 **Prediction: Tesla price will re-align with fundamentals. It will lose around 3/4 of the valuation from the 2022 high, with Elon being questioned and potentially ousted as CEO.** Assumption: As mentioned in the [[Tesla#Assessment 2022]], the company remains a story stock: The valuation of the company is totally detached from business fundamentals, based on potential beta / future opportunities. However, the entire Twitter situation highlighted Elon as an unstable personality that will become indefensible (except for some hardcore fans). As the Tesla valuation is pretty much just Elon, it will trend to re-align to the business fundamentals - which is still a somewhat healthy business, but not even close to the story stock it once was. There is also the issue of an aging model line. The sales are still good, but new models seem to be long delayed. In terms of the Tesla Semi, the thing just [doesn't align with physics](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3dCDNIRM34). My guess is that it will turn out to be a bad investment and that the Pepsi truck deal was heavily subsidized by Tesla (which would be a first, but still - I can't imagine Pepsi going into this without some form of spec guarantees). Date: 26.12.2022 --- **Prediction: Data supply chain will be a thing, creating certificates for the data that AI models are trained on as well as data that is collected by smart devices to optimize their models.** Assumption: We see increasing discussions around training data, especially for visual models: Artists not wanting their works to be used as training data. See [The scary truth about AI copyright is nobody knows what will happen next - The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/23444685/generative-ai-copyright-infringement-legal-fair-use-training-data) We also see data breaches for collected data that is supposed to be used for model optimization. Examples are home security cameras that collect the user video feeds to train their person recognition, but the data set is later leaked, exposing people's homes and privacy. See [Anker’s Eufy lied to us about the security of its security cameras - The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/30/23486753/anker-eufy-security-camera-cloud-private-encryption-authentication-storage) and [A Roomba recorded a woman on the toilet. How did screenshots end up on Facebook? | MIT Technology Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/19/1065306/roomba-irobot-robot-vacuums-artificial-intelligence-training-data-privacy/) One approach is to use synthetic training data and run simulations. While practical, this is currently more expensive and complex that to just use the real data. As a result I assume data clearing houses will emerge that will take the risk of collecting, storing and managing the data in accordance to international and local laws. Organizations can use these services to pipe their data in and get trained models out, without handling any of the risks in between. It would also protect them against [biased training data attacks](https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/10/intentional-bias-is-another-way-artificial-intelligence.html). Date: 26.12.2022 --- **Prediction: In 2023, the Industrial Metaverse will scale, the Enterprise Metaverse will emerge, while the Consumer Metaverse is still forming.** Link: [Three predictions on the Metaverse in 2023 you haven’t read yet](https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/three-predictions-on-the-metaverse-in-2023-you-havent-read-yet-37e07dcc286), 08.12.2022 --- **Prediction: In 2023, consumer brands will continue to use the Metaverse as marketing narrative, driving the illusion of consumer-scale relevance.** Link :[Three predictions on the Metaverse in 2023 you haven’t read yet](https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/three-predictions-on-the-metaverse-in-2023-you-havent-read-yet-37e07dcc286), 08.12.2022 --- **Prediction: In 2023, a society-wide discussion around the boundaries of identity & representation in virtuality will emerge.** This is the follow up to the prediction from 9 Oct 2020. Meaning that I think it will be 2023 when both come true. Link :[Three predictions on the Metaverse in 2023 you haven’t read yet](https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/three-predictions-on-the-metaverse-in-2023-you-havent-read-yet-37e07dcc286), 08.12.2022 --- **Prediction: The 2020s will be the decade where climate change really picks up. It will be remembered as the decade where it became too late to change.** Date: 01.01.2022 Analysis: 👍 The [A22 Network](https://a22network.org/en/) indicates this is trending correctly. --- **Prediction: Within the next 24 months we will see the EU regulating and limiting PoW-based crypto mining within its borders.** Assumptions: Although there will be talk around financial regulations for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, it will be the environmental impact that will dominate the discussion. See [Digiconomist on Twitter: "Some statistics to start the year: During 2021 Bitcoin consumed 134 TWh in total, which is comparable to the electrical energy consumed by a country like Argentina. Related CO2 emissions were ~64 Mt; enough to negate the entire global net savings from deploying EVs." / Twitter](https://twitter.com/DigiEconomist/status/1477420461122375683) Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1477658624671559683, 02.01.2022 --- **Prediction: Web3 as a narrative will be aggressively pushed into the mainstream to keep the crypto hype going. Despite the hype, not much will come of it, however it will succeed in keeping the price for cryptos from totally crashing in 2022.** Date: 01.01.2022 Analysis: 👎 Nope, price went boom in October. I gave them too much credit not to get too greedy and mess it up. Everything crashed in October, bringing down protocols like Luna and big exchanges like FTX. --- ## Predictions made in 2021 **Prediction: As [[Tesla]] and other FSD systems roll out, we will see an increase in "crash for cash" insurance frauds where fraudsters will analyze how the cars behave and create / train forced wrong behavior accidents.** Assumptions: In this sense predictability is a necessity and vulnerability at the same time. This will happen the same year an FSD rolls out into production. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1441289887794094085, 24 Sept 2021 --- **Prediction: We will see way more artificial influencers. I'm not talking about pupeteering like using virtual representations of real humans (v-Tubing and such), I'm talking about fully artificial.** Assumptions: The influencer game is artificial anyway - It's flawed humans trying to simulate an image of perfection, conforming to artificial standards. So the logical thing is to use technology to help make it better. And since humans are flawed and by definition can't conform to these absurd, artificially created standards and images, why not go all the way? It's the ultimate augmentation of the human image - fully artificial. And yes, ethically a VERY bad idea. I think this happens anyway.. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1454765379662884864, 31 Oct 2021 Analysis: 👍 Here we go! [The creator of the future is smart, attractive... and animated - The Vergecast | Podcast on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3OAkRuXy3FTfVp4t29uuqi?si=aaF4rk5XRoCO0t9SkYld2g&nd=1) 👉 Of course people are already working on this (sigh): [VirtualHumans.org — Virtual Influencers, Explained](https://www.virtualhumans.org/) --- **Prediction: With escalating climate change and more frequent environmental catastrophes, we will see national drafts into technical emergency services (https://www.thw.de/)** Assumptions: Currently the military (or national guard) is supporting environmental catastrophes like storms, floods or wildfires, however as these get more regular and more intense, a new specialized (and civilian) agency is needed. This is a long term one until 2040. Date: 23 Nov 2021 --- **Prediction: NFTs will make terrible investments.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1457723884346740739, 8 Nov 2021 Analysis: 👍Price went pretty much penny stocks these days. --- **Prediction: As rent & the price for space in cities goes up, so will the price for currently perceived "public" space. Example: Cars won't be welcome to live rent free anymore.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1446783088109948928, 9 Oct 2021 Analysis: 👉 You can see this trend already with more cities issuing parking permits. However within 2030 paying full rent for parking spaces will be the new normal in big cities. --- **Weird prediction: Having long, open hair will be an early form of biometric protection against deep fakes and will stay surprisingly effective for a while.** Assumptions: Simulating hair is still a very hard thing to do, especially in video and especially for deep fakes. So only going out in public with long, open hair will make it hard for others creating deep fakes of you. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1422118585409888257, 2 Aug 2021 --- **Prediction: [[Blockchains]] break the expectations of a large scale consumer base for digital products. This will prevent large-scale adoption of any Blockchain in a consumer context.** Assumptions: Being immutable and non-fungible are physical traits, not digital ones. See [[Digital Expectations]]. There might be some VERY narrow business use cases for this, but essentially Blockchain as a technology cornered itself based on its design choices. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1401624850263851008, 6 Jun 2021 Analysis: 👉 As of 2022, still no scale use cases for the thing. --- **Prediction: Peloton won't be acquired by Apple.** Assumptions: Everybody talks about [[Apple]] acquiring [[Fitness Technology#Peloton]] as it is kind of inevitable. While the product makes sense for Apples health aspirations and their supply chain makes sense for Peloton, I don't think it's a good culture and brand fit. Apple acquires to create more Apple and I don't think a strong separate brand can exist within Apple. Case and point: Beats. And just to get the exercise hardware, Peloton is not the right partner. Same for content. I believe Peloton within Apple wouldn't work. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1391669567852843015, 10 May 2021 --- ## Predictions made in 2020 **Prediction: [[Meta (Facebook)]] (in its current state) will be seen as harmful component that is not compatible with sustainability focused brands. It will be similar to child labor production, dividing "cheap and mass scale" from "value and conscious".** Assumptions: As criticism is mounting, I don't think Facebook leadership can divert from their harmful business model & practices. There will be a tipping point where the only logical choice for brands will be to distance themselves. The horizon is tricky, but I think this will happen until 2025. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1274281871824781312, 20 Jun 2020 --- **Prediction (1/2): We'll have full avatar representation in video calls soon, meaning you don't use any camera - your entire video feed is generated from voice and ML data. Video platforms doing "blur /change my background" is just a sign that camera video is great, but inconvenient.** **Prediction (2/2): In 5 years we don't need a camera on our laptops anymore to have video conferences.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1256836318170173442, 3 May 2020 Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1154157628848779264, 25 Jul 2019 Analysis: 👉 With the addition of avatars in Teams, we might get there way faster. True, this is still based on a camera, but technically can run autonomously. [Microsoft Teams enters the metaverse race with 3D avatars and immersive meetings - The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/2/22758974/microsoft-teams-metaverse-mesh-3d-avatars-meetings-features) 👍 We got there in 2024 with Apple's Persona 3D Avatars! [Apple Vision Pro review: magic, until it’s not (youtube.com)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdwaWxY11jQ) --- **Prediction: Self inflating structures as Potemkin villages in space will be a thing. Also to claim land.** Assumptions: As the space race heats up, earth-bound contracts will turn out to be meaningless in space. The only effective way is to get there first and "claim the land". However doing that is hard and the easy "cheat" is to imitate doing so by sending inflatable (but fundamentally meaningless) structures. I assume some private space company (or less likely a national space agency) is trying to do that by 2030. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1279322724561760258, 4 Jul 2020, --- **Prediction: 2021 is the year for the next big capability jump in consumer digital assistants. Also won't be Apple, Google or Amazon.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1312797533165572097, 4 Oct 2020, Analysis: 👎 No, it wasn't. Instead the [[Metaverse]] took off. --- **Prediction: New cuts of movies, supplemented with bonus footage, deep fakes and renderings will become the norm, first by enthusiast teams, later by Youtube individuals. Hollywood studios will be in for a surprise if they think they "own" the way a movie is.** Assumptions: This mixed Internet remix culture with movies and trends like "pressuring for a specific version / cut / vision of a movie". Signals are fan edits of the Star Wars Prequels or "Project 4K77". Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1297134316242247683, 22 Aug 2020 --- **Prediction: There will be [[Repudiation Council]] for dealing with damages cause by AI / ML models - an evolution of today's insurances. Essentially they take care when an AI causes damage by misinterpreting intent, for example "following rules but causing harm"** Assumptions: There needs to be some form of human construct to evaluate the results of fully automated processes. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1279504200922279936, 4 Jul 2020 --- **Prediction: Within 5 years one generation wants to talk about "digital yellowface" in vtubing and within 20 about "digital blackface" in AR [[Avatars]] and the other generation won't even understand the problem since skin color is simply an RGB value your can change anytime.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1314441114179510272, 9 Oct 2020 Analysis: 👉 This is already starting, bubbling around [[Avatars#CodeMiko]]. I see this becoming more apparent with Snap filters. --- **Prediction: The next gen [[Apple]] watch will have a temperature sensor to detect early fevers.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1298880581816680448, 27 Aug 2020 Analysis: 👎 Nope. --- **Prediction: US presidential election voter turnout will be around 57% (63% registration). Also, please prove me wrong on this one.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1313737557910474753, 7 Oct 2020 Analysis: 👎 66.7% (73% registration). Well done! --- ## Predictions made in 2019 **Prediction: Europe and Africa will create competitors with local values that will eat into Facebook next 12 months.** Assumptions: Facebook is swimming and [[TicToc]] is blood in the water. It's proof that new social networks can exist & grow big, despite Facebook + Instagram + Whatsapp. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1145612890914918400, 1 Jul 2019 Analysis: 👎👉 It's late, but I'm doubling down on this. Facebook is distracted with their Metaverse things, Twitter is a hot mess and there is just too much opportunity here. Also, China got there first with [[TikTok]] --- **Prediction: Ayn Rands Atlas Shrugged will be adopted by the left where the successful liberal and inclusive world changers want to separate themselves from debt-ridden conservative, narrow-minded nationalists.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1168222003880443904, 1 Sep 2019 Analysis: 🤔 This turned into the Crypto Maxi crowd, turning fundamentally right wing libertarianism into a supposedly left wing Web3 narrative. See [[Four Perspectives on NFTs#NFTs as property]] --- **Cautious prediction: Sustainability will emerge as (for a lack of a better term) a religion in the next 10+ years. There will be global reach, local flocks, rituals, prayer & action around nature, sustainability, relinquishment and positive behavior to create a better world.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1209766112126283776, 25 Dec 2019 --- **Fun prediction: Media / content subscriptions will be rolled into brand based recurring revenue bundles. As media companies try to distance themselves from ad based revenue, they will find going back to paid models is hard. They will try and attach themselves to a lifestyle.** Assumptions: "Be there where the readers / viewers are" means be there where hyper-brands (aka quasi-monopolies like Apple, Google, Facebook) are. Fighting back means creating bundles that are meaningful and reach through the entire lifestyle. So a food brand and a clothing brand and a tech brand and a mobility brand and a fitness brand and a media brand that share brand values into one coherent lifestyle bundle. Also a lot of room to add relevant niche brands. Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1201831609432981504, 3 Dec 2019 --- **Prediction: We will see a new season for a hugely successful sitcom that had its (preliminary) finale decades ago within the next 5 years.** Assumptions: We have seen a number or applications of deep fake technology up lately, from digital de-aging to casting dead actors. Combine that with the ability to create pretty much every environment digitally and the ability to digitally age footage, then we have the ability to pretty much re-create any past movie or TV series. Think of Star Trek: The Original Series, season 4. Think of another season of Cheers, I Love Lucy or Emergency Room. Some network will try it, getting a lot of press and probably even moderate success. If done well it might break records, though. Link: https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/random-ramblings-deep-hollywood-64bd526d6cb4, Aug 17, 2019 --- **Prediction: There will be a movie or series that lets viewers import their avatar as one of the characters within the next 5 years.** Assumptions: Computer games tried this for a while now where players could scan and import themselves as avatars into the game. Even in games it’s more or less a gimmick, however I can totally see someone trying this in movies. Especially now that 3d scanning is becoming widely available. This sounds like something that a streaming providers like Netflix or maybe even Disney would try — it would work well with kids content, especially in a cartoon simple cell shading applied to hide imperfections and make the rendering easier. That said, it’s also totally a gimmick. Link: https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/random-ramblings-deep-hollywood-64bd526d6cb4, Aug 17, 2019 --- **Prediction: A movie will pay multiple actors to voice the lead role in addition to the on-screen actor and allow viewers to exchange them as they watch the movie (replacing the original actors image and voice).** Assumptions: Think of a series where different actors have portrayed the same actor over time: James Bond, the Tom Clancy movies, and so on. Come on, I know a lot of people that would pay to be able to have a drop-down to select which actor they would see in a bond movie. My guess is Netflix will pull this one off first as part of their regional program. Link: https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/random-ramblings-deep-hollywood-64bd526d6cb4, Aug 17, 2019 --- **Prediction: We will see a high profile actor playing another (too old, already dead or simply unavailable) high profile actor.** Assumptions: A full performance of an actor to play another one, essentially extending on what has been done to Peter Cushing’s role in Star Wars: Rogue One, but for a full movie as the title role. This might be to continue a franchise the actor was in or to create entirely new content where the actor would be the perfect cast. Think of another John Wayne western. The credits will go “Some actor playing John Wayne playing Cole Thornton”. Link: https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/random-ramblings-deep-hollywood-64bd526d6cb4, Aug 17, 2019 --- **Prediction: One Studio will try and attempt to take an actor and swap their gender for the entire movie.** Assumptions: As an actors performance will be detached from the physical appearance in the movie, somebody will come up with a gender bender story. Or a director will stand up and argue that the perfect cast for this role is an actor that just happens to have a different gender than the character they are portraying. For example a female actress playing a male character with digital alteration of her physical attributes or vice versa. While (probably) causing a huge controversy at first, the developed technology will then be used in science fiction and fantasy movies to transform human actors into fictional beings without motion capturing. Link: https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/random-ramblings-deep-hollywood-64bd526d6cb4, Aug 17, 2019 --- **Prediction: Somebody will try and re-do an anime through auto-generated visuals.** Assumptions: With a little bit of extra work deep fakes could be applied to animated movies. No need to spend 100+ Million with mixed results, just rebuild the environment, render the thing and pay… probably still 100+ Million on CGI, but maybe the results will be better? It will be yet another failed attempt at bringing an Asian movie to the west, but at least we might get a weird cult classic? Link: https://medium.com/@dirksonguer/random-ramblings-deep-hollywood-64bd526d6cb4, Aug 17, 2019 --- ## Predictions made in 2018 **Prediction: [[Internet Neutrality]] is impossible to maintain.** Assumptions: Somebody needs to pay, where different cultures will have diverging ideas around what type of payment is acceptable. --- ## Predictions made in 2016 **Prediction: [[Relationship Design]] companies will be the next big digital agencies.** -> Made as part of my Razorfish farewell talk: [Let’s talk about Relationship Design | by Dirk Songuer | Medium](https://dirksonguer.medium.com/lets-talk-about-relationship-design-95a4f7e1ebeb) Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/1147114842781880320, updated July 2019 Analysis: We're 110% on track. [They welcomed a robot into their family, now they’re mourning its death - The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/19/18682780/jibo-death-server-update-social-robot-mourning) --- ## Predictions made before 2015 **Prediction: Public Power Outlets will be bigger than public WLAN. Restaurants offering both will win #service.** Link: https://twitter.com/DirkSonguer/status/2324980053, 25 Jun 2009 Analysis: 👉 This got traction when public spaces became offices for information workers, for example the "developer in a Starbucks". The second jump was with electric mobility where power outlets for cars, scooters etc. became a part of the public infrastructure.