Potential futures create rational and transparent visions of futures for a defined audience, creating clarity and guidance. They assume a current frame of reference and then change it to explore how specific aspects might change accordingly. They are detached from details, focusing on specific aspects to reveal important factors and implications and making the impossible or unthinkable more tangible. Note: Potential futures are not a forecast. They are a tool to explore and familiarize yourself with a concept, not necessarily to create [[Personal Future Predictions]]. They can however be used to create recommendations from it and to validate or feed into predictive models. Potential futures explore a *topic* for a *target audience* in defined *contexts*. Or in other words: They have a *purpose*, *audience and observers* acting within a *frame of reference*. See [[Futures Assessment]] for how to assess these potential futures. ## Purpose of exploration While it can be interesting to freely explore futures, they usually have a specific purpose. This can be exploring a specific topic or answering a question. Some examples: * Assuming that X wins the election, what will happen during that term? * What will be the dominant personal computing device in 20 years? * What modes of transportation will be relevant in 50 years? * What will be the human life expectancy in 100 years? This also sets the relevant horizon and timeline for the exploration. Especially: * When from now does the exploration start? * How long do we explore the potential future? The purpose should also state the [[#Forms of exploration]] and at least make sure to define which forms can sensibly answer the question in a usable way. ## Futures thinking -> *This is according to Paul Saffo.* If we think about the motivations that will drive behavior in a given context, we can make assumptions on potential futures, regardless of when they occur. This uses human behavior as an anchor for thinking about the future. As such, you should *"look back twice as far as you look forward"* - Paul Saffo. ## Audience & observers Potential futures are also created for a specific audience and maybe even for specific observers. "Audience" would be readers of the results and recommendations and "observers" would be the point of view of which the exploration is written in. Looking at the examples above, they might be extended into: * Assuming that X wins the election, what will happen to the conservative party during that term? * Computer manufacturer X wants to know what will be the dominant personal computing device in 20 years and what will they enable for their users. * The automotive industry wants to know what modes of transportation will be relevant in 50 years for international business travelers. * What will be the human life expectancy in 100 years from the eyes of the health care system supporting them? As you can see adding an observer and an audience will focus the potential future scenario and give it a *narrative*. It helps to define a frame of reference. ## Frame of reference Potential futures assume a "state of the world" as a starting point. This frames the environment, the actors and the context they are in, as it applies to the aspect you want to explore. This can frame literally be anything, for example: * Society * [[Cultural Dimensions]] * Technology * Economy * Ecology * Politics Note that the framing doesn't need to be detailed, accurate or even realistic, it just needs to be defined. What is a given in these potential futures? What would be opportunities for change? Classify the certainty with which you make these assumptions, for example: * **Given**: This is 100% true and will not change throughout the exploration. Example: "Human life expectancy will not exceed 200 years." * **Likely**: This will be 80% true and there is little room for change throughout the exploration. Example: "The trend of urbanization will continue along the predicted models." * **Risky**: There is a 50-50 chance for this to happen, so not likely, but also not improbable. Example: "There will be another global financial crisis within the next 10 years." * **Wildcard**: Events generally considered impossible or too unlikely to even consider under normal circumstances that have a maximum impact on the exploration. Example: "Complete breakdown of the global financial system." Note that in potential futures, wildcards serve a very specific purpose as they can invalidate other given assumptions. For example: "Global warming doesn't happen". They can free your futures exploration from constraints. Being aware of your core framing is key, as all assumptions you make are essentially a bias baked into your exploration. Not being aware of your framing means your are not actually reflecting on your potential future. The question: "What changes in my exploration?" is as important as "What stays the same?" Assuming something doesn't change is a conscious choice. The realization that something persists in all explorations because it *has to* is an important one. Also, note that this framing is based on the audience and the observer, as some assumptions might be likely for some groups and unthinkable for others. So the "scope of design" or "creative freedom" to create the potential future is limited by the observers fantasy. ## Timeline and relevance The uncertainty of the future exploration is largely based on how far it explores into the future. If it is looking at something tomorrow or next week, we can assume that a lot of the frame of reference is the same as now. If it is 5 years from now, it's likely that more things changed. If it's 100, 1.000 or beyond, then the frame of reference might have to be constructed from scratch. Here are some ways to think about the near, medium-term and far future: Near future | Medium-term future | Far future ------------ | ------------ | ------------ "Clear enough" | "A range of futures" | "True ambiguity" Trivial | Visionary | Speculative Prognosis | Foresight | Utopia Familiar | Recognizable | Alien Note that the classification of near, medium and far is dependent on the thing you want to explore. 5 years is a lot of time in technology, but not so much when looking at how societies change an certainly not in geological terms. ## Approaching exploration There are multiple spectrums how to approach exploring potential futures. An exploration can lean towards using evidence (quantitative), looking at models, extrapolation, benchmarking or review. On the other side it can lean towards creative exploration (qualitative), looking into stories, gaming, role play and so on. It could also lean towards expertise, utilizing expert panels, interviews - or it could approach it from an interactive angle, using [[Wisdom of the Crowds]], panels, conferences and consensus. ## Forms of exploration & Modalities There are many methods one can use to explore potential futures. Some provide a complete framework, other are guidelines or maybe even simple brainstorming tools. The actual output is similarly diverse, some are a [[Future Scenario]], [[Scientific Fiction]], [[Scenario Planning]], short stories, full novels, short films, movies, comics, visualizations, songs, really everything that can transport an idea, concept or [[Future Vision]]. Some potential futures are used in academic research and follow the scientific method. However it's also fine if future scenarios are exciting and entertaining. It all depends on the [[#Audience observers]] - chose the form that will be most comprehensible and actionable for them. In terms of the approach to form, there are: * **Exploratory**: "What future do we expect?" -> This tries to be a neutral exploration of what is possible. * **Directional**: "What is the most likely future?" -> This tries to explore futures that are seen as likely or probable. * **Normative**: "What future do we want?" -> This is often looking for [[Desirable Futures]]. [[Strategic Foresight]] usually talks about possible, plausible, probable and preferable futures. ## The importance of clarity The goal of exploring potential futures might be fun, but usually it has some form of commercial or political background. In other words: The exploration tries to achieve something, for example to show viable [[Desirable Futures]] as an alternative to present systems. To do that, the exploration needs to convince the [[#Audience observers]] that the future is relevant. The core is that the audience is able to follow the [[#Frame of reference]] and understand the exploration itself. So a potential futures need clear, easy to understand assumptions / foundations and be accessible and targeted to the audience so they can understand and comprehend the futures. Only then can they confirm, approve, endorse your futures - or ideally make them possible. ## Articles & posts ['Future Shock,' Pop Futurism, and the Pandemic - The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/02/future-shock-pop-futurism-pandemic/617867/): For most of their history, these books largely reflected the limited perspectives and goals of corporate futurism. Often driven by the agendas of their clients, the futures business focuses on the problems it is hired to solve. Grown in the soil of management consulting and overheated start-ups, even when these works branch out into the wider world, they are more interested in, and can more easily imagine, interstellar colonies and eternal life—which offer an immediate road to profit for some—than an issue such as prison abolition. [Ben Hammersley | How to predict the future | Internetdagarna 2018 - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKzun4DjMGc) https://reallifemag.com/how-to-eat-the-future/