> [!quote] From [[Flight and Ground Instructor Pro-Tips]]: *Lightning Strikes and TAFs* by [[Scott Dennstaedt]] > I impress my students when doing one-on-one training that [[TAF]] should stand for "Tiny" Aerodrome Forecast. The terminal area is so small that meteorologists consider a TAF a point forecast. It's not a zone or area forecast and should never be used as such. Forecasters will often hedge their bets because of this. > > For example, when thunderstorms are more isolated or scattered in coverage, you may not see a forecast for thunderstorms in the TAF. The chances are just too low due to the small size of the forecast area. But you may see SHRA (rain showers) or VCSH (showers in the vicinity) as a placeholder to cover the threat of thunderstorms in these uncertain situations. Remember, showery precipitation describes a convective process. > > So in these situations, it is crucial to read the [[Area Forecast Discussion|forecast discussions]]. Forecasters that issue these [[TAF]]s also issue an Area Forecast Discussion or AFD. However, they don't discuss the retired aviation area forecast or the Graphical Forecast for Aviation ([[GFA]]). They discuss the various local weather forecast office's county warning areas ([[CWA]]s). > > They are a great way to read what the forecaster is thinking and trying to assess this kind of uncertainty. The same forecaster that issues the TAFs for airports in their respective CWA produces the [[AFD]]. They may provide insight into alternate scenarios and highlight the forecaster's confidence, especially regarding convection. > >You can get these by visiting my progressive web app at www.EzWxBrief.com, www.weather.gov, or they may be available through some heavyweight flight planning apps like [[ForeFlight]]. Related to [[Thunderstorm Alerts in Forecast Before Lightning Strikes]]