# Key Takeaways - ~80% of aviation accidents have been caused by "pilot error"^[According to [[NTSB]] based on data from 2002-2022. See [[Risk Management Handbook]] preface for more information.] - When a pilot follows good decision-making practices, risks in a flight can be reduced or even eliminated - [[PAVE]] and [[FRAT]] can help identify potential hazards and risk mitigations # Details Flight has a level of inherent risk. The goal of risk management is to proactively identify safety-related hazards and find ways to mitigate the associated risks. ## Hazards and Risks - [[Hazard]] is a condition that could cause an accident. - [[Risk]] is the combination of [[likelihood]] and [[severity]] of an adverse outcome that may result from a hazard. > [!example] From [[Risk Management Handbook]] > The example of a person crossing a street helps explain the relationship between hazard and risk. The traffic is always a hazard, but it does not usually create a significant risk for a pedestrian until the actual street crossing takes place. Risk assessment depends on the pilot's experience, health, education, and many other elements. ## Preflight ### Identifying Hazards [[PAVE]] is a great starting point to identify hazards.^[[[Complete VFR Preflight Checklist]] and [[Complete IFR Preflight Checklist]] are structured around [[PAVE]] and highlight many more specific elements.] A pilot may also have [[5 Hazardous Attitudes and Antidotes|hazardous attitudes]], which can lead to dangerous decisions while flying. ### Assessing the Level of Risk Once hazards are identified, their associated risks need to be assessed. A [[FRAT]] can help with this process. 1. For each risk, write the associated likelihood and severity. 2. Then, use a [[Risk Assessment Matrix.png|risk assessment matrix]] to determine the risk level. 3. For any risk greater than 'medium', a mitigation should be found. > [!quote] From [[Risk Management Handbook]] > If in doubt about risk mitigation, a pilot should consider the value of mitigation against the potential cost of property damage and loss of life. For an example of this, see the #case-study in [Risk Assessment: Student Solo with Showers in the Vicinity](https://cfijack.com/risk-assessment-student-solo-with-showers-in-the-vicinity/) by [[CFI Jack]]. ### Personal Minimums For more information on the value of, and process for setting, see [[personal minimums]]. > [!quote] From [[Risk Management Handbook]] > Managing these risks requires a conscious effort and established standards (or a maximum risk threshold). Pilots who practice effective risk management have predetermined personal minimums and have formed habit patterns and checklists to incorporate them. > ... > Professional pilots live by the numbers, and so should general aviation pilots. ## In-Flight ### Handling Threats and Errors - A [[threat]] is a hazard in the environment that is outside the crew's control. This includes things like system failures or unexpected ATC instructions. - An [[error]], on the other hand, is a deviation from intended or expected actions. It results in a reduction in safety margins, and it can be an unintentional or intentional act. > [!example] > An unexpected taxi clearance is an example of a threat. A [[runway incursion]] is an example of an error. Pilots defend against threats and errors in a number of ways: - Checklists, [[SOP]]s, and best practices - Utilizing a second person^[Even a passenger with basic [[~ Emergency Pilot Outline|emergency pilot]] training can be an asset.] or external resources - Clear communication^[Such as a [[SAFETY]] brief] - Effective [[SA]] and keeping up with [[Two Most Important Things in Aviation|the next two things]] - Automation management - Effective [[CRM]] and [[SRM]] These layers of defense form the Swiss cheese model for preventing an [[incident]] or [[accident]]. ![[Swiss Cheese Model.png]] Some pilots employ the [[Three Strikes and You’re Out Rule]] to avoid building an accident chain. While a single decision or event may not lead to an accident, a series of events and the resultant decisions together form a chain of events leading to a negative outcome. ### Automation The use and misuse of automation are significant topics in risk management. For more information, see [[Autopilot Systems and Usage]]. ### Aeronautical Decision-Making Risk management is a part of aeronautical decision-making (ADM). Risk management can be thought of as the *Perceive* and *Process* steps of the [[3P Model]], while ADM covers all three steps. For more information, see [[ADM]]. # Additional Resources - [[Risk Management Handbook]] - [[PHAK Ch2]] - [[AC 60-22]] - [Risky Business: The What, How, and Why of Risk Management](https://express.adobe.com/page/4fzlCJCB98DPr/) ***Definition*** :: The part of the decision-making process which relies on situational awareness, problem recognition, and good judgment to reduce risks associated with each flight. ***Source*** :: [[Risk Management Handbook]] #glossary #concept #safety