Cycles comes about because of what George Soros has termed [[Reflexivity]]: ![[Pasted image 20240110083012.png]] The human agents in the system each have their own subjective view of reality which can differ from the objective reality and causes supply and demand imbalances in the economy, financial markets, and society which have been termed cycles. These imbalances are reflected in prices of goods, services, and security prices and are set based on the principals of the [[Auction Process]]. Some popular cycle archetypes are: 1. Kitchin Cycle: 39 months based on the rhythm of fluctuations in business inventories 2. Juglar Cycle: 7-8 years related to business investment in plant and equipment 3. Kuznets Cycle: 20 years related to population changes from generation to generation and the resultant rise and fall in the construction of housing 4. Kondratieff Cycle: set off by major innovations such as the railroad and automobile 5. [[Credit Cycles]] 6. [[Business Cycle (Short-Term Debt Cycle)]] 7. [[Emergence of Major Global Economies]] >**_"Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive."_** -Andy Grove, Former CEO of Intel Corporation ## Feedback Loops Complex systems have many [[feedback loops]] which makes the systems dynamic. Without feedback systems do the same thing over and over again and do not change. It is very difficult to appreciate how adjusting to feedback in one part of the system will affect the rest, therefore is it important to understand them, respect them, and use them wisely. ## Generational Theory William Strauss and Neil Howe devised this model which describes a recurring generation cycle in American history. According to the model, historical events are associated with recurring generational archetypes (turnings) which last approximately 21 years and where different social, political, and economic moods exist. **Case Studies** - [[CHG Issue 163 Reframing the Bond Market]] - [[CHG Issue 155 Leadership Crisis]] - [[CHG Issue 140 Modern Aristocracy]] Explore Further: [[Financial Markets History]] | [[History & Timeline Index]] | [[Excess and Balance]] Tags: #buddings Your support for Cedars Hill Group is greatly appreciated <form action="https://www.paypal.com/donate" method="post" target="_top"> <input type="hidden" name="hosted_button_id" value="74PGN8ZXHQVHS" /> <input type="image" src="https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donate_LG.gif" border="0" name="submit" title="PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!" alt="Donate with PayPal button" /> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://www.paypal.com/en_US/i/scr/pixel.gif" width="1" height="1" /> </form>