#books ![[Pasted image 20221121131116.png]] Poker and the markets as a new kind of lab for studying how people learn and make decisions under uncertainty. >A hand of poker takes about two minutes. Over the course of that hand, I could be involved in up to twenty decisions. And each hand ends with a concrete result: I win money or lose money. The result of each hand provides immediate feedback on how your decisions are faring. But it's a tricky kind of feedback because winning and losing are only loose signals of decision quality. "It is hard to leverage all that feedback for learning" - the relationship between learning and decision-making. ## What a bet really is: >a decision about an uncertain future. Thinking this way helped her avoid common decision traps, heuristics, biases, etc. It helped her learn from results in a more rational way, and keep emotions out of the process as much as possible. (Denise Shull argues that we cannot remove emotions from decision-making) ## Our bets are only as good as our beliefs > Part of the *skill* in life comes from learning to be a better belief calibrator, using experience and information to more objectively update our beliefs to more accurately represent the world. The more accurate our beliefs, the better foundation of the bets we make. There is also skill in identifying when our thinking patterns might lead us astray, no matter what our beliefs are, and in developing strategies to work with (and sometimes around) those thinking patterns. There are effective strategies to be more open-minded, more objective, more accurate in our beliefs, more rational in our decisions and actions, and more compassionate towards ourselves in the process. (p.48-49) ## Motivated Reasoning >This irrational, circular information-processing pattern is called *motivated reasoning*. The way we process new information is driven by the beliefs we hold, strengthening them. (p.59) >It doesn’t take much for any of us to believe something. And once we believe it, protecting that [[belief]] guides how we treat further information relevant to the belief. (p.60) # Chapter 3: Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future ## Other people's outcomes reflect on us >A lot of the way we feel about ourselves comes from how we think we compare with others. This robust and pervasive habit of mind impedes [[Learning]]. Luckily habits can be changed....By shifting what it is that makes us feel good about ourselves, we can move toward a more rational fielding of outcomes and a more compassionate view of others. We can learn better and be more open-minded if we work toward a positive narrative driven by engagement in [[Truth-Seeking]] and striving toward accuracy and objectivity: giving others credit when it's due, admitting when our decisions could have been better, and acknowledging that almost nothing is black and white. (p.105) ## Reshaping Habit [[Learning]] | [[Atomic Habits]] **The Habit Loop** >When we have a good outcome, it cues the routine of crediting the results to our awesome decision-making, delivering the reward of a positive update to our self-narrative. A bad outcome cues the routine of off-loading responsibility for the result, delivering the reward of avoiding a negative self-narrative update. (p107) >Our brain is built to seek positive self-image updates. It is also built to view ourselves in competition with our peers. (p.107) >We can work to change the bell we ring, substituting what makes us salivate. We can work to get the reward of feeling good about ourselves from being a good credit-giver, a good mistake-admitter, a good finder-of-mistakes-in-good-outcomes, a good learner, and (as a result) a good decision-maker. Instead of feeling bad when we have to admit a mistake, what if the bad feeling came from the thought that we might be missing a learning opportunity just to avoid blame? Or that we might be basking in the credit of a good result instead of, like Phil Ivey, recognizing where we could have done better? If we work toward that, we can transform the unproductive habits of mind of self-serving bias and motivated reasoning into productive ones. If we put in the work to practice this routine, we can field more of our outcomes in an open-minded, more objective way, motivated by accuracy and truthseeking to drive learning. The habit of mind will change, and out decision-making will better align with executing on our long-term goals. (p.108) >When we look at the people performing at the highest level of their chosen field, we find that the self-serving bias that interferes with learning often recedes and even disappears. The people with the most legitimate claim to a bulletproof self-narrative have developed habits around [[accurate self-critique]]. (p.108) >Keep the reward of feeling like we are doing well compared to our peers, but change the features by which we compare ourselves: be a better credit-giver than your peers, more willing than others to admit mistakes, more willing to explore possible reasons for an outcome with an open mind, even, and especially, if that might cast you in a bad light or shine a good light on someone else. (p.109) ## Case Studies - [[CHG Issue 7 GameStop]] - [[CHG Issue 61 Drunk Driving]]