From Shane Parrish at [The Knowledge Project](https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/): >When you start out with a problem the solution appears simple. However, as you dig into the problem it becomes more [[Complexity|complex]] and the solution moves further away from simple. It is only when you move through to the other side of the complexity that the problem becomes simple again. However, the solution is not a simplistic one. **True mastery comes from the ability to distill complexity down to simple explanations and solutions.** However, this is often the opposite of what we do. We tend to confront the unknown and uncertain with more complexity. One of the best examples of this in history is that of the Israelites. God gave Moses the Ten Commandments and somehow over the ages they expanded those Ten Commandments in 613 different laws that made up The Law of God. Then Jesus came along to do away with The Law and distill it down to a simple command: > “Jesus replied: “ ‘Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind.’ This is the first and greatest commandment. And the second is like it: ‘Love your neighbor as yourself.’ All the Law and the Prophets hang on these two commandments.”” > [Matthew‬ 22‬:37‬-40‬ NIV‬‬](https://bible.com/bible/111/mat.22.37-39.NIV) While this is a simple command it is one of the most difficult things to obey in our day-to-day lives. We are always looking for a short cut or a simple solution so that we can avoid the really hard work. This is why get rich quick schemes proliferate and why the "For Dummies" series of books have been so successful. Very few of us are truly willing to put in the hard but simple work that is required for a successful life. # Forecasting Despite the overwhelming evidence that most forecasts are widely inaccurate we are constantly looking to forecasters and analysts to give us a hint of what the future may hold. How else can we plan for the future without these forecasts? A forecast allows us to ignore the complexity and anchor to a certain path or point of view. Once we have this baseline we can measure any outcome relative to this baseline. While this seems logical it promotes a very narrow worldview. # The Road Less Traveled The hard work comes in spending your time distilling down the complexity to the simple truths, no matter how hard those truths may be. The [[Efficient Markets Hypothesis]] is an easy assumption to make about the markets, whereas the harder [[truth]] is that price in the market is set by the [[Auction Process|continuous two-way auction process]]. This truth requires a lot more work than just assuming that prices and returns are random but it allows for a truer understanding of the market forces at work. **Case Studies** - [CHG Issue #141: Reframing Markets](https://open.substack.com/pub/cedarshillgroup/p/chg-issue-141-reframing-markets) - [CHG Issue #117: The Game of Life](https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-117-the-game-of-life) - [CHG Issue #91: Preparation](https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-91-preparation) Explore Further: [[Learning]] Tags: #evergreen #Principles Your support for Cedars Hill Group is greatly appreciated <form action="https://www.paypal.com/donate" method="post" target="_top"> <input type="hidden" name="hosted_button_id" value="74PGN8ZXHQVHS" /> <input type="image" src="https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donate_LG.gif" border="0" name="submit" title="PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!" alt="Donate with PayPal button" /> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://www.paypal.com/en_US/i/scr/pixel.gif" width="1" height="1" /> </form>