Bayes' Theorem gives us a useful formula to update our prior beliefs. You may wonder why we may need a math formula to update our beliefs about a person after they double-cross us, or steal from us, but often times changing our beliefs is a difficult thing to do when we should and sometimes we change our beliefs too quickly based on emotional decisions. Bayes' Theorem gives us a logical alternative against which we can measure our intuitive response to what life throws at us. Trying to explain Baye's Theorem in the most basic and [[Simple versus Simplistic|simple]] way, we can think of Bayes' Theorem as the ratio of the specific ways an event could occur over the total number of ways the same event could occur. If your mind goes to thinking of a Venn diagram you are on the right path. Mathematically, Bayes' Theorem expresses the probability of event A occurring given that event B is true as the following fraction: $ P(A \vert B) = {P(A \cap B) \over P(B)} $ Explore Further: - [CHG Issue #56: Bayes' Theorem](https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/march-07th-2022) Tags: #probability Your support for Cedars Hill Group is greatly appreciated <form action="https://www.paypal.com/donate" method="post" target="_top"> <input type="hidden" name="hosted_button_id" value="74PGN8ZXHQVHS" /> <input type="image" src="https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donate_LG.gif" border="0" name="submit" title="PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!" alt="Donate with PayPal button" /> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://www.paypal.com/en_US/i/scr/pixel.gif" width="1" height="1" /> </form>