> “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already.” > — Tolstoy ## Epistemology Studies the nature, origin, and scope of knowledge, epistemic justification, the rationality of belief, and various related issues. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemology) ## Knowledge Problem >Hayek argued that there was a “knowledge problem” in society, whereby **knowledge is naturally dispersed throughout society in such a way that attempts to concentrate it into a single planner or planning board are, at best, inefficient and, at worst, impossible**. ## Fitch's Paradox of Knowability >**Fitch's paradox of knowability** is one of the fundamental puzzles of [epistemic logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemic_logic "Epistemic logic"). It provides a challenge to the _knowability thesis_, which states that every truth is, in principle, knowable. The [paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox "Paradox") is that this assumption implies the _omniscience principle_, which asserts that every truth is known. Essentially, Fitch's paradox asserts that the existence of an unknown truth is unknowable. So if all truths were knowable, it would follow that all truths are in fact known. >[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitch%27s_paradox_of_knowability) Fitch’s paradox is best demonstrated in the Bible and in life where we see our field of vision narrowed. The truth was that if Adam and Eve ate from the tree of knowledge they would die. What was unknown is how that death would come. Only God is omniscient. The simple act of seeking his knowledge is impossible because we are not God. ## Feynman Reasoning [Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise](https://fs.blog/evaluating-information/) Seven tricks for evaluating information: 1. Deciding whether someone truly knows their stuff 2. [Grey Thinking](https://fs.blog/value-grey-thinking/), the ability to put things on a scale from "probably true" to "probably false", [[CHG Issue 56 Bayes Theorem|Bayesian Thinking]] 3. As we investigate whether something is true or not, new evidence and new methods of experimentation should show the effect of getting stronger and stronger, not weaker. 4. Ask the right question which is not "could this be the case", but "is this actually the case" 5. Don't use the same data that gave you the clue to make the conclusion. Test it out on something new 6. We must use proper statistical sampling to know what we are talking about. The anecdote is not the data. 7. Realize many errors come from a lack of information. We are missing information we don't even know we are missing. >A large part of wisdom is knowing what to ignore. A large part of expertise is knowing where to place your attention. ^ed1a2f **Case Studies** - [[CHG Issue 56 Bayes Theorem]] - [[CHG Issue 7 GameStop]] Explore Further: [[Education]] | [[Complexity]] Tags: #seeds Your support for Cedars Hill Group is greatly appreciated <form action="https://www.paypal.com/donate" method="post" target="_top"> <input type="hidden" name="hosted_button_id" value="74PGN8ZXHQVHS" /> <input type="image" src="https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donate_LG.gif" border="0" name="submit" title="PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!" alt="Donate with PayPal button" /> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://www.paypal.com/en_US/i/scr/pixel.gif" width="1" height="1" /> </form>