## 2022 ### February - March Russian invasion of Ukraine causes spot gold to rally to 2070, testing the August 2020 high of 2075 ### September Fed raises rates by nearly 500bps and gold breaks out below the March 2021 low. ## 2021 ### January - March Capitol invasion strengthens Biden's mandate which causes long-term interest rates to rise and the dollar to fall on fiscal spending worries. Gold bottoms in March. ## 2020 COVID pandemic causes short-term market crisis which takes gold down to a 50% retracement of the 2011-2015 trading range and then rallies to take out the 2011 high and set a new high in August on the back of the fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic. ## 2019 Fed pauses rate hikes. ## 2018 Strong dollar supported by Trump policies pressures gold and commodities. Precious Metals sentiment bottoms when Vanguard changed the name of their flagship commodity fund to de-emphasize precious metals. Central bank purchases of gold totaled 651 tons in 2018, the highest since the dissolution of Bretton Woods. ### June Gold breaks out to the upside as the Fed prepares to start lowering rates as the economy slows. ## 2017 Fed resumes rate hikes ## 2015 ### December Fed raises interest rates for the first time since the GFC ## 2013 ### April - May Taper Tantrum as Fed indicates plans to taper bond purchases causes gold to breakout lower ## 2012 ### July ECB President Mario Draghi says "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro" ## 2011 Second Greek debt crisis and gold peaks at 1920 in September 2011. ## 2010 In 2010 the "demise of fiat currencies" was inevitable. The BOJ intervened in the Yen and caused a massive dollar rally. First Greek debt crisis. ## 2000s Nominal and Real Gold bottomed in the early 2000s after the implosion of the Dot-com bubble. Why? Because the Fed took rates lower by nearly 500bps and held them there for nearly three-years. ![[Pasted image 20221127181549.png]] Gold did not retake the February 1990 high until January 2004, but it bottomed in the summer of 1999. ![[Pasted image 20221127180544.png]] ## 1990s Peak of Japan's boom ends with a financial crisis ## Sunday, September 20, 1931 Bank of England abandons the gold standard which led to a run on US gold deposits by the Bank of France. The Bank of France and the other members of the gold bloc converted $750 million of dollar deposits into gold which exerted deflationary pressure and undermined the US banking system. (Manias, Panics, and Crashes p.194) **Case Studies** - [CHG Issue #89: The 79th Element](https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/issue-89-the-79th-element?sd=pf) Tags: #timelines #financial-system-history Your support for Cedars Hill Group is greatly appreciated <form action="https://www.paypal.com/donate" method="post" target="_top"> <input type="hidden" name="hosted_button_id" value="74PGN8ZXHQVHS" /> <input type="image" src="https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donate_LG.gif" border="0" name="submit" title="PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!" alt="Donate with PayPal button" /> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://www.paypal.com/en_US/i/scr/pixel.gif" width="1" height="1" /> </form>