When we’re trying to assess how likely a certain event is, we often make our decision by assessing how similar it is to an existing mental prototype, ignoring base rates and any doubts about the legitimacy of the description of the event. "One sin of representativeness is an excessive willingness to predict the occurence of unlikely (low base-rate) events" (TFAS) #prediction ##### Related studies: 0. Bordalo, P., Coffman, K., Gennaioli, N., & Shleifer, A. (2016). Stereotypes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1753-1794. 1. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. science, 185(4157), 1124-1131. 2. Feldman, N. H., Griffiths, T. L., & Morgan, J. L. (2009). The influence of categories on perception: Explaining the perceptual magnet effect as optimal statistical inference. Psychological Review, 116(4), 752-782. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0017196 3. Winawer, J., Witthoft, N., Frank, M. C., Wu, L., Wade, A. R., & Boroditsky, L. (2007). Russian blues reveal effects of language on color discrimination. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 104(19), 7780-7785. 4. Radvansky, G. A. (2011). Human memory. Prentice Hall. 5. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). Judgments of and by representativeness (No. TR-3). STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY. 6. Fortune, E. E., & Goodie, A. S. (2012). Cognitive distortions as a component and treatment focus of pathological gambling: a review. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 26(2), 298. 7. Bordalo, P., Coffman, K., Gennaioli, N., & Shleifer, A. (2016). Stereotypes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1753-1794. 8. Donaldson, L. (2017, December 19). When the media misrepresents Black men, the effects are felt in the real world. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/12/media-misrepresents-black-men-effects-felt-real-world 9. Kahneman, D. (2003). A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality. American psychologist, 58(9), 697. 10. Gilovich, T., & Savitsky, K. (1996, March/April). Like goes with like: The role of representativeness in erroneous and pseudoscientific beliefs. The Skeptical Inquirer, 20 (2), 34-30. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Thomas_Gilovich/publication/288842297_Like_goes_with_like_The_role_of_representativeness_in_erroneous_and_pseudo-scientific_beliefs/links/5799542208ae33e89fb0c80c/Like-goes-with-like-The-role-of-representativeness-in-erroneous-and-pseudo-scientific-beliefs.pdf 11. Weintraub, P. (2010, April 8). The doctor who drank infectious broth, gave himself an ulcer, and solved a medical mystery. Discover Magazine. https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/the-doctor-who-drank-infectious-broth-gave-himself-an-ulcer-and-solved-a-medical-mystery ##### Examples: - [[False Consensus Effect]] - [[Gambler's Fallacy]] - [[Halo Effect]] - [[Mere Exposure Effect]] - [[Naive Realism]] - [[Present Bias, Projection Bias]]