As a general rule we tend to be overconfident about things. Shocker! We are overconfident not only in our predictions about others but also in our predictions about ourselves. In many overconfidence studies evaluating this overconfidence levels, even when we report 100% confidence in our predictions we aren't even close to 100% accuracy. [[Three ways we are overconfident]]. # Why are we overconfident? ### Feedback Loops Slow [[Feedback loops]] are the birthing pool of overconfidence. In contrast, fast feedback loops are fantastic for tempering overconfidence. This is why weather forecasters are some of the best professional predictors. They have a much faster feedback loop than other professional forecasters like futurists. When they say it will rain 90% of the time, it will likely rain 90% of the time. ### Skin in The Game In many cases in life we have no [[Skin in the Game By Nassim Taleb]] as author of [[How I Profit From Randomness Antifragile Book Summary]] [[Nassim Taleb]] states. Having skin in the game means we have something to lose for being wrong about something. When we have skin in the game we tend to be more risk averse and analyze our choices more. For example in the [[Wason task]] we are more likely to flip over the right sets of cards if we associate ourselves with the group that is being stereotyped. ### Hindsight Bias Another major reason for our overconfidence is [[Hindsight bias]], which is our tendency to overestimate our ability to predict something or have predicted something after we learn of the outcome of something. One case you saw this in was in the 2016 presidential election. Many people didn't think Trump would win but after the fact "magically" changed their mind. ### Exposure Effect We tend to be overconfident about things which seem familiar to us. The classic example is in studying for an exam. Most students study by looking over their notes (probably the night before the test) and asking themselves if they understand it. If the information feels familiar--likely because you have simply been [[Exposure effect|exposed to it a lot]] you will likely overate your understanding of it and move onto other things to study. ## What mindsets lead to overconfidence? ### What are the differences between foxes and hedgehogs in forecasting? Foxes are defined as people who don't have a rigid ideology. Hedgehogs, however, have a ideology they stick to religiously. From studies it's clear that foxes tend to be less overconfident than hedgehogs. That is when they rate themselves at high confidence they tend to be more accurate than the Hedgehogs who rate at an equivalent confidence. When do we Tend to be overconfident? [[When do we tend to be overconfident or underconfident]]. # How do we overcome overconfidence? ### Consider the opposite Considering the opposite helps us fight [[Confirmation bias]]. Ask yourself what arguments there are for the other side. I do this a lot in my notes by creating a heading where I purposefully seek out disconfirming information. ### Appoint a Devils Advocate Appoint someone who's sole job is to look for disconformity evidence. You might want to rotate who is in this job because otherwise people might start to hate them. ### Premediate on adversity [[Premeditating adversity]] is a technique from [[Stoicism MOC]] where you imagine all the things that could go wrong in something before they do. This is also called conducting a pre-mortem. ### Follow the reserve clause This is another technique from Stoicism where you go into a situation intentionally meditating on the fact that it might not go to plan. [[Marcus Aurelius]] followed this technique before fighting back against the general that betrayed him after the Marcommanic Wars, Cassius. ### Imagine the future [[Jane McGonigal]] in her book [[Imaginable]] describes a technique to prepare for the future called imagining. It involves imagining yourself experiencing an average day say 5 or 10 years in the future if something drastic changed. Maybe a future where everyone is allergic to meat, or there is a zombie apocalypse, or another pandemic. The more you bring in your five senses into the imagining the more real it will feel in your mind and the more likely it will help with overconfidence. In her studies, McGonigal noticed that those who went through her pandemic imagining study noticed the signs of the COVID-19 pandemic way before most people. ### Analyze the base rate Find the statistical central tendency of the thing you are predicting for. In all likelihood, your accuracy of prediction will be quite close to the base rate. ### Consider a problem from the inside and outside Consider the problem from the inside as well as from the outside. One avenue this is particularly helpful in is shame and guilt. Many people are often more forgiving toward their friends or family than they are to themselves. If you are ever feeling particularly shameful it can be very useful to think about how you would feel if your friend came to you with your same problems. ## What areas aren't we overconfident in? ### Social life Interestingly, despite our overconfidence in a whole slew of other areas, we tend to be [[We tend to underestimate how social we are compared to others|pessimistic in evaluation of our social lives]] compared to others. The main reasons for this are the people that spring to mind when we evaluate others social lives are those that are most social since we don't see the people that aren't very social.