up:: [[Probabilistic thinking]] Tags:: #🌱 # Ergodicity "A situation is deemed non-ergodic when observed past probabilities do not apply to future processes. There is a “stop” somewhere, an absorbing barrier that prevents people with skin in the game from emerging from it—and to which the system will invariably tend. Let us call these situations “ruin,” as there is no reversibility away from the condition. The central problem is that if there is a possibility of ruin, cost-benefit analyses are no longer possible." - [[Nassim Taleb]] This is why there is no cost benefit analysis in a game like Russian Roulette over a large number of plays. You couldn't calculate the cost benefit analysis of playing one hundred times. As soon as you lose, there is no benefit, you are dead. Related: [[<% tp.file.cursor(4) %>