up:: [[Probability]] Tags:: #🌱 <% tp.file.cursor(3) %> Links:: <% tp.file.cursor(4) %> # Conjunction probability The probability of a conjunction of two independent events, prob(A and B), is the product of the probabilities of each: prob(A) × prob(B). The biggest mistake people make when calculating conjunctive probability is failing to think about whether the events are independent. One example of this is the bogus [[Meadows Law]]. Independence is tied to causation. If one event effects the probability of another than they aren't statistically independent. How do we calculate the conjunctive probability of something if they aren't independent? Easy: it's the probability of A times the probability of B given A, to wit, prob(A) × prob(B | A).