# Whatever Next? Predictive Brains, Situated Agents, and the Future of Cognitive Science ## Authors - **Andy Clark** (University of Edinburgh) ## Publication Details - **Journal**: Behavioral and Brain Sciences - **Year**: 2013 - **Volume**: 36 - **Issue**: 3 - **Pages**: 181-204 - **DOI**: [10.1017/S0140525X12000477](https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X12000477) ## Abstract This influential target article provides a comprehensive review of predictive processing as a unifying framework for understanding brain function. Clark argues that the brain is fundamentally in the business of predicting its own sensory inputs and that this prediction-based approach unifies perception, action, and cognition. Unlike Hohwy's more internalist reading, Clark emphasizes how predictive processing is compatible with -- and enriched by -- embodied, embedded, extended, and enactive (4E) approaches to cognition. The paper includes extensive peer commentary and author response. ## Key Contributions ### Comprehensive Review - **Prediction Machines**: Brains as hierarchical prediction engines - **Action-Oriented**: Predictions guide action as much as perception - **Situated Cognition**: Predictive processing for embodied, embedded agents - **Future Directions**: Roadmap for cognitive science research ### Unifying Framework - **Perception**: Top-down predictions constrain bottom-up processing - **Action**: Proprioceptive predictions drive motor behavior - **Emotion**: Interoceptive predictions and allostatic regulation - **Language**: Linguistic predictions at multiple levels - **Social Cognition**: Predicting other agents' behavior ### Embodied Predictive Processing - **Body as Model**: The body is part of the generative model - **Environmental Coupling**: Prediction includes body-environment dynamics - **Extended Mind**: Predictive processing beyond the skull - **Enactive Dimension**: Perception through sensorimotor prediction - **Scaffolding**: Cultural and environmental prediction scaffolds ### Contrasts with Hohwy - **Externalist Reading**: Predictions extend into body and environment - **Against Isolation**: Brain is not epistemically sealed - **Action-Oriented Representations**: Representations for action, not just belief - **Material Culture**: External structures as part of the predictive apparatus ## Core Concepts ### The Prediction Machine The brain is a multi-level prediction machine that operates according to: 1. **Generate**: Top-down predictions about expected sensory input 2. **Compare**: Match predictions against actual sensory input 3. **Update**: Propagate prediction errors upward to revise models 4. **Act**: Issue motor predictions to change sensory input ### Precision-Weighted Prediction Error Not all prediction errors are equal: - **Precision**: Expected reliability of prediction errors - **Attention**: Gain on precise prediction errors - **Action Selection**: Based on predicted precision-weighted outcomes - **Psychopathology**: Aberrant precision in mental illness ### Action as Prediction Motor behavior is recast as prediction fulfillment: - **Proprioceptive Predictions**: Expected body states - **Motor Reflex Arcs**: Fulfill proprioceptive predictions - **Goal-Directed Action**: Higher-level predictions about desired states - **Tool Use**: Extended body schema through predictive models ## Impact and Applications ### Cognitive Science - **Unified Theory**: Framework spanning perception, action, emotion, language - **Interdisciplinary**: Connected neuroscience, philosophy, psychology, AI - **Empirical Program**: Generated extensive experimental research - **4E Cognition**: Showed compatibility with embodied approaches ### Philosophy - **Philosophy of Mind**: New framework for consciousness and cognition - **Epistemology**: Knowledge as predictive modeling - **Extended Mind**: Predictive processing version of extended mind thesis - **Free Will**: Agency through predictive self-modeling ### Neuroscience - **Neural Architecture**: Hierarchical cortical processing - **Psychiatric Disorders**: Aberrant prediction error processing - **Development**: Brain development as model building - **Neuroimaging**: Prediction error signals in fMRI ## Related Work ### Core Theory - [[friston_2009]] - Predictive coding under FEP - [[friston_2010]] - Free energy principle review - [[friston_2006]] - Original FEP formulation ### Philosophical Treatments - [[hohwy_2013]] - The Predictive Mind (contrasting internalist view) - [[bruineberg_2018]] - Ecological-enactive perspective - [[seth_2021]] - Being a Beast Machine ### Extensions - [[parr_pezzulo_friston_2022]] - Active Inference textbook - [[friston_2017_curiosity]] - Curiosity and exploration ## Citations and Influence One of the most cited papers on predictive processing, this target article (with over 30 peer commentaries) brought predictive processing to the mainstream of cognitive science. Clark's accessible writing and broad scope made the framework intelligible across disciplines and his embodied reading provided an important counterpoint to more internalist interpretations. ## Reading Guide 1. **Section 1-2**: Introduction to predictive processing 2. **Section 3-4**: Action, attention, and emotion 3. **Section 5**: Philosophical implications and embodiment 4. **Commentaries**: Read selected peer responses for debate context 5. **Author Response**: Clark's engagement with critics --- > **Landmark Review**: One of the most influential and accessible reviews of predictive processing for cognitive science. --- > **Embodied Prediction**: Integrates predictive processing with 4E (embodied, embedded, enacted, extended) cognition. --- > **Action-Oriented**: Emphasizes that prediction serves action and engagement with the world, not just passive perception.